Turn out the lights!

Two reasons light's on my mind tonight. First, in about half an hour, 20:30 local time, or 8:30 pm for our American cousins, I'm told I should turn my lights out to support the Earth Hour initiative. Secondly, our clocks are set to jump forward for the summer here in Europe. A double shot of light craziness sure to throw my internal clock for a loop. Got me thinking about why we change our clocks twice a year; having always assumed it had something to do with conserving energy it seems very related to the savings and awareness being raised by the big switch off tonight. Or, is it?

Daylight Saving Time (DST), or summer time for our European friends (I know, I'm a crazy Canadian, speak like an American, do everything else like a European), is designed so afternoons have more daylight and mornings less. Being controversial, it hasn't been adopted by the whole world. Many countries have actually used it for awhile and then dropped it which makes it strange that it was extended a couple years ago in the States (and I'm guessing Canada). Then I remembered it was Dubya who signed in the extension, making me even more dubious than I am about tonight's worldwide electricity savings of an hour of darkness in 3,400 towns and cities across 88 countries. Last year the city of Toronto saw electricity usage dip from 2885 megawatts at 8 pm, already down from the normal 3000 (probably cuz most of the big consumers had started powering down) to 2738 megawatts by 8:54, an 8.7% drop, easily exceeding the 5% goal.

It's 20:30 and I've just switched off all my lights (had difficulty digging up a candle) and about half the lights in the other flats in my courtyard are still on. Should I start throwing rocks or just count on the savings we make changing our clocks? Oddly, the US government passed the plan that called for a new energy-impact study to be commissioned after the new energy bill that extended DST by a month became law in 2007. The last major study done before that in the US in 1970 showed DST saved about 1% overall, making the 5% savings worldwide for an hour seem merely symbolic. However, this world is a much different place than 40 years ago; energy usage patterns are no exception. The new study found that the total energy savings throughout the period of Daylight Saving Time add up to 17 trillion Btu of primary energy consumption, which was only .02 percent of the country’s total use in 2007. A lot of trouble to light a city of 150,000. Besides the electricity, proponents say there is less crime, fewer traffic fatalities, more recreation time and increased economic activity.

While Benjamin Franklin is credited with coming up with the idea of daylight saving in 1784 to conserve candles, many think it isn't worth the hassle today, and in fact may actually ultimately increase energy use. In a study done in Indiana in 2006 when they instituted daylight saving statewide for the first time (before then, daylight time confusingly was in effect in just a handful of Indiana’s counties) Matthew Kotchen and his colleague Laura Grant unexpectedly found that daylight time led to a 1 percent overall rise in residential electricity use, costing the state an extra $9 million. But it's good for golf! The golf industry told Congress in 1986 that an extra month of daylight saving was worth up to $400 million annually in extra sales and fees. Retailers in sports and recreation are some of DST's biggest supporters, so I've got to lose an hour's sleep tonight and remember that EST becomes EDT, Central Standard Time (CST) becomes Central Daylight Time (CDT), Mountain.. you get the idea.

The push for DST came with last century's world wars. They felt it helped to save energy for war production by taking advantage of the later hours of daylight between April and October. Therefore it was instituted nationally in the US for the war years, but during the interwar period and since WWII the choice of whether or not to observe has been made by the community. Farmers hate it, explaining Indiana's late adoption and Saskatchewan's continued non-use; Arizona (except some Indian Reservations), Hawaii, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and American Samoa are other American locations still opting out. Europe has been doing it since after WWI where Summer Time begins the last Sunday in March and runs through the last Sunday in October. Annoyingly, this does not directly coincide with Daylight Savings in the United States. Consequently, time variants between nations do not stay uniform year-round. Around the world most nation's ignore it with only one, Kyrgyzstan, observing it all year. 130 countries don't observe DST at all, 77 have at least one location observing and only 66 where the entire country turns their clocks this year.

It's the messing with the body clock that I can take. We're already slaves to the clocks on the wall (or more likely our phones and computers) but we're also forced to adjust a couple times a year, manually (that damn clock on the stove!) and physiologically. Remember that although we can stay in the bar an hour longer in October we get an hour less light at a time of year when the amount of daylight is growing smaller daily. By the winter solstice most people don't get any sunlight as they go and return to and from work in the dark. School buses are on the roads loaded with kids well before sunrise. Researchers at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm and their colleagues looked at myocardial infarction rates in Sweden since 1987 and found that the number of heart attacks rose about 5 percent during the first week of Summer Time. In the October 30, 2008, New England Journal of Medicine, they suggested that this rise may result from the disruption of sleep patterns and biological rhythms. The near month difference in observation dates between Europe and North America causes huge headaches for communication and business, like the airlines. Religious observances and calendars tied to sunrise and sunset times are also be affected. Later sunrise during the extension periods hinders observant Jews' ability to pray at sunup and still make it to work by 9 a.m.

Well, it's after 10pm now, lights back on, noticed fewer lights on in the courtyard but it's probably due to people going out, it is Saturday night and all, of which there will be an hour less than normal tonight. There's so many other factors that aren't equally predictable when figuring the pros and cons of DST, not the least of which are the losses during winter. The Australian idea to turn the lights off for an hour tonight seems like an easier benefit to measure; here's hoping they reach their goals and get good press tomorrow. While the thrifty Franklin suggested Paris could save nearly 100 million livre tournois a year with DST, we're wasting plenty more with our excessively energy reliant lifestyles.

Why the West Coast should fall in the Pacific

Quick thought. I'm a huge NFL football fan ( my picks are the Ravens, Steelers, Panthers and the Eagles this weekend). If the PST (and PDT for half the year), were to fall into the ocean due to an earthquake or something, games would be broadcast a couple hours earlier (I think the network would ignore mountain time to take more advantage of the east).

Defensive struggle, Ravens by a field goal. Cardinals in the playoffs? Craziness ends in the divisional round, but this is the highest scoring game of the weekend, an over lock as the Panthers win with a couple of Steve Smith TD's in a 40 to 31 game. Steelers will survive the frozen Heinz Field but the Chargers have caused the biggest chatter this week. Sproles can't repeat his LT replacement wonder of last week and 'Fast' Willie Parker (best nickname for a running back) outshines him. I also have a good feel about the Eagles to take care of the defending Super Bowl champ Giants. They killed my Cowboys coming into the playoffs and knocked Adrian Peterson and the Vikings out last week in the wildcard round.

Back to my original point, if LA, Ca and Victoria BC (sorry guys) were to fall in the sea, American national broadcasts would be on at least an hour earlier and these Saturday playoff games are starting late, especially out here in central Europe. Poland is in the same time zone as Spain, but it's still 6 hours after American eastern time. The starts are 10:30 pm and 2:15 am for me; I was up until 6 am last Saturday watching the Charger overtime win over the Colts, the game NBC won the ratings race with last week. Even if you didn't understand anything between the earthquake paragraphs, ratings are forcing me to stay awake later, greed ruins everything, even my sleep!

The Cheque's in the Mail

Waking up today was probably a little harder for most people than normal. Nothing like a New Year's hangover to keep you under the covers in bed for the day. Unless of course your waking up in the Ukraine, where there's an even better reason to fight your hangover from the warmth of your sheets. Once again the Russian giant Gazprom has "lowered pressure" in gas pipelines to the Ukraine, making for some awfully cold New Year's mornings.

Well, things might not be so dire. While Ukraine's state energy firm Naftogaz confirmed that supplies began dropping off at 7:00 am GMT they also said they had begun to pump supplies from their reserves which should be sufficient for 'several' months. It's no fun dealing with utility companies, but imagine dealing with a Russian gas company and that gas company is called Gazprom. The cheque's in the mail probably has a very familiar sound to it for many of us. So, is this just a case of someone not paying their gas bill? On one side, yes, as even if Kiev paid $1.5 billion to RosUkrEnergo - a Switzerland-registered gas trading company acting as an intermediary - which Gazprom denies, the late payment fees have piled up to the point where they now owe double this amount. However, dealing with Gazprom isn't like dealing with your local gas supplier, Gazprom is Russia. The last few years has witnessed a consolidation of power in the Russian gas industry to the point of re-nationalization. That being the case, this becomes more than just an unpaid bill.

Russia turned off the gas to Georgia a couple of years back, also in the dead of winter. Now, the effect of the Ukraine's support for Georgia in last September's conflict with Russia is being seen in Gazprom's response to late payment. Further complicating negotiations between the two is that a contract for 2009 supplies has yet to be signed, with Gazprom demanding a hefty rise in price. You want more complications? Well, much of the rest of Europe's supply of gas from Russia flows through the same pipes, and seeing as Europe depends on Russia for about a quarter of its needs, things could get pretty tense. A similar episode back in 2006 led to gas shortages throughout the continent. Oh yeah, let's not forget that the Ukraine is in the middle of yet another political crisis and the fact that Gazprom may actually need the cash, with $10.6 billion in debt to be repaid by June. In fact this whole mess is just too much for me to wrap my head around with this pounding hangover. Maybe I'll just get back under the covers.

Fear and Loathing (far from Las Vegas)

Another Monday, another meltdown. Today it's Europe's turn to pour a little gas on the financial fear factor fire. While it might have been the European Day of Languages a couple of Fridays ago, the latest round of panic is threatening to turn the cracks in the EU into irreparable chasms as the different central banks scramble to find their own response to the credit squeeze. While the US markets were able the breathe a sigh of relief as the bailout package was rammed through Congress, the different heads of the European financial hydra don't seem to be able to be speaking the same language. Even Super Sarkhozy seems to have failed to bring the team together as the weekend summit of the leaders of Germany, Britain, Italy, Luxembourg, the European Central Bank and the European Commission at the Elysee Palace in Paris didn't produce any tangible results.

The EU has been on a roll for most of the past decade. Now 27 member states strong, they've enjoyed a decade of growth, prosperity and cooperation for the most part. The 15 nation Eurozone had introduced greater stability into the heart of the European economy, ending the frenzy of competitive devaluations that marked previous financial panics. Sure the Euro was too strong and interest rates a bit high, but while Europe’s patchwork system of regulators and financial authorities may not have worked elegantly in theory, it had been shown to work effectively in practice. Then Dutch-Belgian bank and insurance giant Fortis NV faltered, followed in rapid succession by Bradford & Bingley, and Dexia being forced into accepting government bail-outs. Faced with their first test, the European Central Bank can't seem to find a coherent response. Ireland kicked off the me-first procession last Tuesday by announcing the government would guarantee €400bn ($563bn) of deposits and bank debt of its six national banks. Greece quickly followed suit while France seemed to be pushing for an American style bailout response (300 billion euros), but other states, particularly Germany, opposed it and shot it down. Then, the latest blow to the unity of the system came from Germany itself as they astonished its fellow European nations,and angered the UK Treasury, Sunday night by unexpectedly announcing that it will guarantee all retail savings deposits. Sweden, Austria and Denmark all offered to guarantee deposits today (Monday).

All of this has created a capital flight fear in the other European nations as depositors look for the safest haven for their investments. Today's victim may be more than just a bank, as it seems Iceland's financial structure is melting (sorry for that ice/melt thing). The currency, the krona, has dropped 20 per cent against the euro in the past month (plus a further 23% today), the government has bought a 75% stake in the country's 3rd largest bank, Glitnir, but no plan to deal with the crisis has yet to emerge, besides stopping trading on the country's banks today. With a population of only 320,000 it may not seem like a big deal, but Iceland's problems could foreshadow similar problems across Europe. A significant proportion of Icelanders, plus many of the other smaller European economies, such as my current home of Poland, have in the past decade turned to loans for cars and homes denominated in baskets of lower interest rate currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. With the krona’s decline, consumers are left stretched, leading to more defaults, leading to more banking problems. Ironically, what gave the European economy its strength over the last decade, the integration of the economies, could be what leads to further banking collapses across the continent. With this fear in mind, the Spanish prime minister announced plans on Monday to hold an emergency meeting with the heads of the country’s banks. Everyone is pointing fingers at the nations who have moved to guarantee deposits, privately criticising the moves as it will force each country to follow suit. “It will be like dominos,” said one Spanish official. “Now everyone will have to do it.”

Could the financial crisis tear the EU apart? We'll have to wait and see, but they definitely seem to be pissing each other off. Fear causes people and therefore nations to do things they normally wouldn't do. "We learned from the worldwide economic crisis of the 1920s that an economic crisis can result in an incredible threat for all of society," Germany's interior minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told the magazine Der Spiegel. "The consequences of that depression was Adolf Hitler and, indirectly, World War II and Auschwitz." The smell of fear is definitely in the air.

And the non-loser is...

Sitting over a couple of beers a few months ago, conversation turned to the US presidential election. Being in a bar in Poland, I was the only North American represented in the discussion and the only one to predict a John McBush victory. My European friends all shared the same viewpoint; the US was ready for change, in need of change and the populace would make the sane decision and vote for Barrack Obama come November. What they didn't, and most people don´t realize is that the winner won't be the man who wins, but the one who doesn't lose.

Flashback to 2004, the electorate is forced to choose between two men; John Kerry, Massachusetts senator, and George W. Bush, the incumbent. The signs are obvious, change is necessary. The war in Iraq is at a low point, John Kerry is a Vietnam war hero, Bush a draft dodger; Kerry is an intellectual, Bush is a ...well, insert your own adjective here. Enter Karl Rove, political master of the black arts. It's the terror, stupid instead of the economy, or the war as he helped Dubya ride a patriotic wave to re-election in 2004. The focus of the campaign was Kerry's flip-flop on a war funding bill and "moral values", two ripe targets for the Christian heartland. Enter the attack on Kerry's service in Vietnam (the infamous swift boat issue) and the gay marriage amendment appearing on the ballot in 11 states.

Fast forward to 2008 and the latest news is the attack style adds of the McBush camp. Why the sudden change from the straight talk express? This year evil once again has a name and it's Steve Schmidt, Rove's protege, who cut his teeth running the 2004 Republican war room and guiding the re-election campaign of Arnold Schwarzenegger. Schmidt was brought in last month to jumpstart the ailing McBush effort. Therefore the latest spat over negative ads really comes as no surprise, victory can only be had by bringing down the man known as "THE ONE" in the McBush camp. Obama will be attacked mercilessly from here on in.


McBush goaded Obama into visiting Iraq, so when Obama went one better and his World Tour '08 made him look like a rock star, enter the Spears/Hilton comparisons. I guess it was hoped by the Republicans he'd make a big mistake, he didn't, so now we hear some manufactured story about not visiting wounded soldiers. Obama's popular in Europe, so I'm sure American TV (read Fox News) will be filled with anti-Europe tirades. Don't forget that Obama's half-black, the race card will be played. That middle name thing will be interesting too, Hussein isn't all that popular in the heartland.

Come October, if nothing else is dug up by then, there will be the replay of the Reverend Wright story, over, and over and over again until TV viewers across the land are convinced that he and Obama are one and the same. If all else fails my friends, power being so addictive that the Republicans won't let it go, there will be a "terrorist" attack. I know, I know, now I've definitely crossed the line into conspiracy theories, but it's one bet I'm willing to make, anything to ensure this:


Remember that the US is not a true democracy. It uses the electoral college and just influencing a few voters to vote one way (or not to vote at all) in a few key states is all that is needed for victory. More on that in a later post...

What A Tangled Web We Weave - Lies Part I

They stand in front of the cameras and microphones with crooked smiles plastered to their faces as they tell the people what it's thought they want to hear. No, the sky isn't falling, yes, there will be a better tomorrow. The past 30 years or so has brought with it a new world order, one that promises a better future for everyone, but the reality is in sharp contrast. The facts seem to tell me that not only is the sky falling, the earth is also about to open up and swallow us, due in no small part to the fact that people seem to accept the lies that they are told. I don't have the slightest idea why we seem to keep buying the lies, but I do know that now that Hillary is out of the picture, the real campaign for the presidency will start in earnest, which will bring with it a whole new level of BS.

Let's start with the economy stupid. The biggest lie, and the one that is almost universally accepted, is that the Republicans and their candidate represent fiscal responsibility, an idea somehow pulled from their "belief" in small government. Or maybe it's still belief in Alan Greenspan who had to be pulled out of the closet to get the public ready for increasing interest rates during an "economic slowdown". Stagflation fears. The "spiral" in prices feared needs to come as we've, America in particular, spent ourselves too far into debt. Us, as individuals, and them as the government can't continue the borrow and spend ways of the past century or so. The red ink has been picking up pace since the 80's when Reagan spent the reds into the ground. But he also pumped up the monster that is the military complex to unsustainable levels while ordering the people to spend as recklessly to keep the economy ticking. The man who invented "Reagonomics", David Stockman, has been indicted for stealing people's money, but that is what the American government, most pronouncedly during Republican reigns, has done. Stockman later repented, decrying the policies he helped create, but we'll get more of the same if McBush gets elected.

The past 3 decades have brought us so much. Taxes on the rich have fallen, while taxes on the rest have risen with predictable results. Measured in 2005 dollars the net worth of the top 2% of American families more than doubled from just over $1 million to over $2 million from 1984 to 2005 while the bottom quarter saw their worth actually fall. In fact, the poorest 10% have a negative net worth. The US national debt has increased from $930 billion in 1980 to $9.5 trillion today. Consumer credit in the US has risen to over $2.5 trillion, adding around $10 billion a month. All for what? A better life? A new TV, or better yet, a new God Car. The neo-cons have completed their transformation of McCain into McBush and he is now a die-hard tax cutter for the rich, doling out the odd stimulus cheques so we can at least go to the mall once a month. Leaving the rest of us to work more to pay for the extravagances. The phenomenon isn't confined the the US, Europe is in similar straits, and the powers that be have decided that people simply have to work more, and have therefore raised the maximum number of working hours to 65 from 48. Of course, this only matters if you're lucky enough to have a job. Well, you need enough money to put gas in the car and food on the table. Oh yeah, those costs are rising too ... which brings us to part 2 of lies tomorrow.