Independence Day

“If we cross the Rubicon and Kosovo gains independent status tomorrow, frankly speaking, I expect this independence to echo in other regions as well, including those close to Russia's borders. You perfectly understand what I mean - I mean Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transdniester” - Russia's military chief of staff, Yury Baluevskyk, December 2007

So, it has begun. Both chambers of Russia's parliament unanimously passed resolutions Monday (the 25th) urging the Kremlin to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Putvedev signed the declaration the next day although many 'experts' had figured that they'd keep the card up their sleeve for a little while at least. So, who else will recognize them? Serbia and Belarus for sure, but it doesn't look like the members of the SCO are going to, they've got separatist problems of their own. Syria? Cuba? Venezuela? For Ossetians, this could bring them a step closer of realizing a dream to restore Alania, an ancient kingdom they believe was home to their ancestors, the Scythians. But really, independent? They set their clocks to Moscow time, use rubles and most of the population carries Russian passports. Speaking of population, they couldn't fill China's National Stadium. There's no industry, save smuggling through the Roki tunnel which cuts a huge ridge through the Caucusus. Consumer goods pour south from Russia, avoiding Georgian duties, and crime rings transport drugs north from Central Asia and Afghanistan, yet they dream of becoming the world's newest Liechtenstein. So, let's look at what other countries could soon be as "independent" as South Ossetia.

What is the internationally accepted standard of independence? It's almost getting a little tired, linking this issue with the NATO bombing of Serbia and the ensuing declaration of Kosovo as an independent country by the west, but the similarities become clearer by the day. Kosovo unilaterally declared independence and much of the west supported her, but there are still many more who have yet to do so. The street celebrations saw people waving Kosovan and US flags, in thanks to US support in the Serbian bombing campaign of 1999. The streets of Tskhinvali Monday saw similar celebrations, this time with Russian and South Ossetian flags being waved in thanks to Russian military intervention in ousting the Georgians. Next up for the Russians, Transnistria, Nagorno Karabakh, and maybe a couple Ukrainian enclaves, Crimea and Donetsk. But I want to look at the possibility of not just a few countries being 'liberated' by independence, how about the possibility of this igniting a wildfire across the planet.

Kosovo was "a lesson in how to resolve conflicts of identity and membership, peacefully and democratically," said Miren Askarate, spokeswoman for the Basque regional government. So, in Spain, the Basque and Catalan separatists seize the moment and officially separate. It turns out Franco was right all along, they were just a bunch of commies (Homage to Catalonia). Belgium splits in two, with a Flemish north and a French south. The snow falls non-stop in Eastern Turkey, where the PKK and supporters, cut off from the rest of the world in Kars, execute a coup and declare independence from Ankara (Snow). The Muslim nations of the world band together in their support of Palestine as it separates from Israel. The rebel group Moro Islamic Liberation Front(yes, the acronym is MILF) in the Philippines declared that with the move by Kosovo "the taboo" of the unwritten rules of the United Nations safeguarding the integrity of the countries that it recognises "has been shattered. What is prohibited for decades", says Khaled Musa, deputy chairman of the Front, "is now a virtual part of international law". Mindanao therefore splits from the Philippines and Xinjiang from China. Meanwhile the Buddhists all back Tibet and the Shan State's breakaway from Beijing.

Following riots after a controversial Montreal Canadiens game 7 loss in the Stanley Cup finals to the Vancouver Canucks that features English Canadian referees, the Parti-Quebecois quickly calls for a referendum on separation and win in a land slide. The US isn't immune to the spreading disease as Puerto Rico, the Northern Marianas, US Samoa and Guam all quickly declare their independence. Staying in the Pacific, Tokelau and the Cook Islands officially separate from New Zealand. West Papua and Aceh also break from Indonesian control and Bougainville from Papua New Guinea (Mister Pip). Chiapas breaks away from Mexico while the oil rich region of eastern Bolivia also declares a new country with its capital in Santa Cruz. Of course Africa has more than just Biafra which leaves Nigeria (Half of a Yellow Sun), as the newly integrated Bakassi breaks from Cameroon, Zanzibar from Tanzania, Southern Sudan along with Darfur from Khartoum and Puntland and Somaliland form nations out of what was Somalia.

France turns out to be one of the biggest losers as Corsica, Martinique, Guadaloupe, New Caladonia, French Polynesia and Wallis and Futuna all become island nations. The Faroe Islands and Greenland are lost to Denmark. Sri Lanka, which has been fighting against Tamil efforts for independence for 20 years, declared the move by Kosovo could create "an unmanageable precedent in the conduct of international relations". Colombo didn't support the secession of Kosovo, because it "poses a grave threat to international peace and security". Now, Tamil Eelam is recognized in the north-east of Sri Lanka. Kashmir gets its hands on a bomb and everyone agrees, yeah, they're a country. The UK not only loses Scotland in a referendum in 2010 but also Northern Ireland, the Chagos Islands, Turks and Caicos and Gibraltar to the independence craze. Nevis, with it's 98% literacy rate breaks from St. Kitts. "I salute the independence of Kosovo. No people can be forced to live under the rule of another," said Mehmet Ali Talat, leader of the Turkish Cypriots. Now Northern Cyprus could also be recognized as a separate nation along with the Srpska Republic, completing the circle back in the Balkans as it separates from Bosnia Herzegovina.

I'm sure I missed a few, but it seems like quite a headache for the UN. Technicalities will mean little, de jure or de facto, legal or practical, there could be a lot more countries in the near future. Is Taiwan a country? Not to China, nor the UN, but for all practical purposes it is. Following the Kosovan declaration, the Taiwan foreign ministry said "self-determination is a right recognised by the United Nations, and it is the people who are masters of their nation's future...In no way should the independence of one nation be denied by another". What's to stop somewhere like Kosovo dividing again, the Serb dominated north seceding from the south? Russia and the west are playing a dangerous game which will in all likelihood turn out to be a nightmare for any geography student.