Waiting For Him To Die

I swear I didn't mean to turn it into a competition, but somehow that's how it was construed by two of the nastiest leaders in the world. My comparison of Stephen Harper to Robert Mugabe at the end of 2008 was meant to be a friendly reminder to Canadians of the dangers of the sheep in wolf's clothing yet both leaders have enthusiastically taken on the challenge to see who can destroy their nation the fastest. Both seem to support torture of enemies while doing nothing to free their citizens from illegal imprisonment, both are intent on ruining their country's international reputation and both use every means at their disposal to cling to power.

Most of the past year has seen Mugabe laying low in an effort to lull the world into a false sense of security that the power sharing agreement struck with Morgan Tsvangirai over a year ago was indeed working. Meanwhile, Harper has been taking bold risks in an effort to wrestle the title and had taken a slight lead in the competition in the past year. Well folks, we should have known better than to underestimate the Zimbabwean zilch as he has struck a decisive blow in his quest for the title of world's worst leader. In case you missed it, Robert Mugabe is celebrating the 10 year anniversary of the start of the destruction of the the agriculture industry through the seizure of white owned farms by implementing a law to do the same thing to the rest of the economy.

Mugabe's latest move goes by the ominous name of the Indigenisation and Economic Empowerment Regulations 2010. By quietly publishing the law last week, which was actually passed in 2008, the government has officially given all businesses worth over $500,000 notice that they will have to be 51% indigenous-owned. An indigenous Zimbabwean is "any person who, before the 18th of April 1980, was disadvantaged by unfair discrimination on the grounds of his or her race, and any descendant of such person, and includes any company, association, syndicate or partnership of which indigenous Zimbabweans form the majority of the members or hold the controlling interest". By April 15th, all firms, whether foreign or domestic, must submit completed official forms describing the business and showing its plan for ensuring that, within five years, indigenous Zimbabweans will own at least 51 percent of the shares. Judging by the success of such a strategy in the agriculture sector, Mugabe has essentially guaranteed the completion of the destruction of his nation.

Pity poor Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition MDC and Prime Minister for exactly a year last Thursday. Just a week ago he was in Davos schmoozing with the banking elite, extolling the investment opportunities in the new and improved Zimbabwe. He argued in speeches and interviews there that western nations should be easing sanctions on his country as a reward for the progress made and that they were on an "irreversible path to change". Of Mugabe's latest gambit on his return to Zimbabwe later in the week he stated, "I am in charge of all policy formation in cabinet and neither myself nor the cabinet were shown these regulations before they were gazetted. They were published without due process as detailed in the constitution and are therefore null and void." His words haven't had any effect on the imprisonment and torture of Roy Bennett, his nominee for minister of agriculture, during the past year either.

Even worse, imagine being finance minister Tendai Biti, also of the MDC, trying to convince foreign investors to put money into Zimbabwe. The sales pitch might go something like this: "OK, so although every $100 you put into our country instantly turns into $49, just imagine how many zeroes you'll be able to add to it once you convert into Zimbabwean dollars. Based on our inflation rate you'll be a trillionaire in no time!".

And who will be the winners of Mugabe's latest power grab? The people, as Youth Development, Indigenisation and Empowerment Minister Saviour Kasukuwere (really, that's his name and title) claimed, "It is in the interest of the people of Zimbabwe to become shareholders"? Ha! Just as in the farm seizures, the benefits will be carefully divvied up amongst Mugabe's cronies, like his cousin here. With a new constitution and election on the horizon next year Mugabe once again needs some carrots to dangle in front of his thugs who he'll need out in force during the polls to guarantee a result that will keep him president.

While the elite gorge themselves on a new source of wealth, the people have to deal with the reality of today's Zimbabwe:

• a 70% fall in agricultural production since 2000
• over 90% unemployment as well as the world’s highest inflation - an unfathomable ninety sextillion percent
• a maternal mortality ratio which quadrupled from 283 per 100,000 in 1994 to 1,100 per 100,000 in 2005
• an infant mortality rate which rose from 52 per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 68 per 1,000 in 2006
• an adult mortality rate (the probability that a 15-year-old person will die before reaching 60) which sky-rocketed from 286 per 1,000 in 1990 to 751 per 1,000 in 2006
• life expectancy at birth which fell dramatically from 62 years for both sexes in 1990 to 36 years in 2006

Also at Davos, deputy prime minister Arthur Mutambara told reporters, "What we need to do as a government, what we needed to do as a people is to improve the investment climate in our country, we need to make sure we guarantee security of tenure, we guarantee property rights that business investments are protected  in our country." In reality, what they need to do as a government and a people is remove Robert Mugabe instead of simply waiting for him to die. Time is running out as this latest move will do to the rest of the economy what was done to farming. Once the breadbasket of Africa that even supplied markets in Europe, Zimbabweans now rely on international handouts to eke out survival. Come to think of it, the worst job would theoretically be a white minister of mining. Based on the Bennett prison beatings for the scrapings of what's left of the agricultural revenue and the the relative wealth underground in Zimbabwe to pay for the underground henchmen, it's almost lucky Mugabe has his own man there. Together, along with the ambassador to China, they'll secure Robert and Grace's diamond jubilee.

The Worst Job in the World

In case you missed it, tomorrow marks one week since Morgan Tsvangirai was sworn in as Prime Minister of Zimbabwe. Also, in keeping with my recent theme of birthdays and evil, February 21st will be President Robert Mugabe's birthday. Causes for celebration, no? Maybe, but once again the news out of Zimbabwe seems to be going from bad to worse. Mugabe has perfected his imitation of Muhammed Ali's rope-a-dope fighting technique, always seeming to come off the ropes at a difficult angle, his opponents never able to get a clean shot. Sadly, the constant stream of bad news has not only created apathy outside of Zimbabwe, where most have grown immune to the absurdity of the situation, it has also lead to the only opposition voice accepting a deal that seems doomed to failure.

The illusion of compromise is what Mugabe and his South African collaborators have crafted over the past few months. After what seemed like endless wrangling, a power sharing deal was finally worked out where Tsvangirai would become PM and his MDC party along with the Arthur Mutambara's breakaway faction would be granted 16 ministerial posts (13 & 3) while Mugabe would remain President and his Zanu-PF party would get 15 ministries. All good in theory, all bad in practice. The issue of who would get which ministry took ages to sort out; first Mugabe grabbed the three most critical posts, defence, home affairs - which is in charge of the police - and finance, but in the end conceded the finance ministry to the MDC and a sharing arrangement for home affairs. Here's where the real comedy starts. The swearing in ceremony for the ministers took place last Friday, coincidentally the same day Tsvangirai's pick for deputy minister of agriculture was arrested, charged with conspiracy to commit banditry, sabotage and terrorism. Roy Bennett, a former white farmer (well, he's still white, but his land was stolen by Mugabe) and current MDC treasurer has been jailed indefinitely. Next, Mugabe brings a list of 22 names to be sworn in as ministers at the ceremony (remember, only 15 Robert), causing delay and confusion which eventually resulted in around 35 ministers being sworn in when the original number was to be 31 (best list I can find is here). I'm afraid the battle that took place over the scraps of power, fist fights were reported, will be indicative of what's to come as the survival instinct kicks in for Mugabe's cronies.

If not for the Bennett arrest, the biggest ministerial story would be the finance portfolio. In a country where inflation is off the charts (does 6.5 quindecillion novemdecillion percent - 65 followed by 107 zeros make any sense to you?), they've recently minted a 100 trillion dollar note, gold is exchanged for necessities and a move to the South African Rand and dollarization is occurring, the most important post allocated to the opposition MDC should be that of finance minister. Tsvangirai chose long time supporter Tendai Biti, a man who until just a few weeks ago was languishing in a Harare prison on treason charges. In what are said to be his first comments on receiving word of his posting, Biti was quoted as saying, "The job is the worst in the world but I will have to look the job in the eye and I have no doubt that I will be equal to the task and will prevail". The economy is broken and he will have little real power to do anything as central bank chief Gideon Gono, an ally of Mr. Mugabe’s, pulls the levers. Gono has done everything possible to drive the economy into the ground. The man living in a 47-bedroom house has overseen the collapse from exporting powerhouse to the present state and to this day doesn't blame Mugabe or himself, but, like his boss, blames the west. The root cause can clearly be found in the land seizures of the white minority commercial farms, destroying property rights, collapsing food production, foreign investment, lending and land values, with a bit of international (never effectively targeted) sanctions to wrap it up. The vicious circle, once started, has only been reinforced by every stupid move that Gono makes.

Unbelievably, it appears things are about to actually take a turn for the worse instead of improving. There are growing whispers that there could be a coup in the making, orchestrated by the Joint Operations Command (JOC), a five-man body comprising the chiefs of the army, air force, police, prisons and intelligence - the most powerful men in the country. All five boycotted last Wednesday's and Friday's swearing-in ceremonies for Tsvangirai and the country's new ministers. Tsvangirai himself seemed to hint at this reality the other day saying "We have to budget for some residual resistance from those who see this deal as a threat to their interest". In a Guardian interview he went on to say, "Unfortunately people are preoccupied with Mugabe as a person. They need to get over it. This has gone beyond Mugabe. People need to stop talking about him as the only issue. Mugabe is part of the problem but he is also part of the solution. He is not the obstacle we are now facing". Even more worrying are the acts of provocation against the MDC: the arrest of Roy Bennett, and the refusal to release political prisoners whom Tsvangirai has demanded be released. The same men have openly declared they would never salute Tsvangirai. It's no wonder as these five have the most to lose if the new government manages to function and reduce corruption: everything from choice land to having first dibs on the food and fuel that does manage to make it into the country, which are then sold at favourable prices to parallel market operators who profit from shortages. Already the MDC controlled parliament has approved a law that creates a new National Security Council to be accountable both to the MDC and the Zanu-PF.

Keep in mind that Robert Mugabe turns 85 years-old later this month and has been in power for 29 years, even he knows that all things must eventually come to an end. Could his blowout birthday bash this Saturday be a last hoorah? In a country where 94 per cent are jobless and cholera rampages through a population debilitated by hunger, a wish list has been sent out to the party faithful soliciting the following: 2,000 bottles of champagne (Moët & Chandon or ’61 Bollinger preferred); 8,000 lobsters; 100kg of prawns; 4,000 portions of caviar; 8,000 boxes of Ferrero Rocher chocolates; 3,000 ducks; and much else besides...Those who prefer to give in cash, not kind, are invited to send “donations” of between $45,000 and $55,000 to a US dollar bank account." Add to this the revelations of the Mugabe's recent property purchases in Asia, including a £4 million residential complex in Hong Kong, where wife Grace has managed to do some shopping and investing when she's not too busy punching photographers. The investing? In case you couldn't guess, a diamond cutting and polishing venture in China.

Of course, the more likely course of events will see Tsvangirai squeezed out as the JOC is probably acting in concert with Mugabe. After all, Mugabe doesn't have a good record of playing nicely with rivals; remember Joshua Nkomo, the man Mugabe sent the North Korean trained Fifth Brigade to kill. Nkomo escaped, but 20,000 Ndebele civilians didn't. Sounds like the election campaign last year, so the status quo continues and Zimbabwe eventually becomes a failed state. Option 2 somehow sees the power sharing arrangement survive, not likely given the fact that most of the people who are in the Zanu-PF cabinet are the same ones that composed the previous one, which even Mugabe called "the worst ever". The first real test will come shortly as Tsvangirai has promised to pay all 150,000 civil servants salaries pegged to foreign currencies; problem is, there won't be any foreign reserves to pay them as Gono has given it all to Grace to go shopping. Maybe they'll at least have time to force Mugabe to extradite Mengistu Haile Mariam, the former Ethiopian dictator who slaughtered opponents on an industrial scale in the “Red Terror”, to Addis Ababa for execution. Or, will it be door #3, a coup d'etat, with the JOC taking control, most likely with the support of those members of the Zanu-PF who have lost their positions due to the power sharing agreement, perhaps even getting Nkomo's old PF-Zapu party back together? Not exactly Let's Make a Deal where the worst door you could choose often left the contestant with a goat, a luxury beyond the reach of most Zimbabweans today.

Still Somewhere in Africa: Zimbabwe

Whew! Thank god that's over, problem solved. Robert Mugabe signed a power-sharing agreement with his rival Morgan Tsvangirai on Tuesday, making the latter Prime Minister. Finally, we can get on with our lives and stop worrying about what's happening in Zimbabwe. Hold on, wait a second, did I say problem solved, stop worrying, Zimbabwe and Robert Mugabe in the same paragraph? I think I did, guess that means nothing's actually decided yet, now I suppose I'll have to tell y'all about it...

I've written three posts since the first round of elections in Zimbabwe, but haven't bothered since the sham of a run-off election for the presidency. In case you missed it Morgan Tsvangirai won the first round, but didn't obtain the necessary 50% (cough, er, yeah right), which necessitated the run-off, which Tsvangirai pulled out of in protest to the violence he and his MDC party were being subjected to by the ruling Xanu-PF. We all know how that story ended, Mugabe in a landslide taking over 85% of the vote, being sworn in as President on June 29th. Well, predictably the west criticized the vote as being illegitimate, and more predictably, Mugabe's spokesman told the west to "go hang a thousand times". While Tsvangirai was hiding out in the Dutch embassy, his party's party's secretary-general and chief negotiator Tendai Biti said in a statement that "the sham election on June 27, 2008, totally and completely exterminated any prospect of a negotiated settlement."

So, what happened between now and then to change their mind? The UN with it's failure to pass resolutions; the Italian's recalling their ambassador; the French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner saying the EU would "accept no government other than a government led by Mr Tsvangirai"; the G8 at a meeting in Japan declaring that "We do not accept the legitimacy of any government that does not reflect the will of the Zimbabwean people"; the US and EU tightening of economic sanctions to include those doing business with the regime; or maybe the Canadian governments banning of arms exports, freezing the assets of top Zimbabwean officials and banning Zimbabwean aircraft from flying over or landing in Canada. I think not, international isolation, so long as it doesn't affect his wife's shopping trips, has proven useless in influencing Mugabe.

While Mugabe, however illegitimately managed to hold onto the presidency, the original election results did bring a change to who controls the lower house of parliament. Tsvangirai's MDC now has 100 seats and ZANU-PF has 99 seats. An MDC offshoot, led by Arthur Mutambara, won 10 seats and an independent candidate won one seat. Prior to the parliamentary session finally being opened at the end of August, an MDC member, Lovemore Moyo, was voted in as the speaker of the house, the 4th most powerful position in the government. When Mugabe addressed the opening session, his speech broadcast live across the country was drowned out by the boos of the opposition. Perhaps this was a wake up call for Mugabe to realize he was incapable of running the day-to-day affairs of the country without Tsvangrai onside.

In tandem with this, Africa, however belatedly, came together to help force compromise. While not all nations seemed to be on the same side, in the end, Mugabe's anti-white rhetoric couldn't be used against his African neighbours. While South African president Thabo Mbeki will get much of the credit for mediating the deal, his pro-Mugabe stance probably caused more damage than he healed. More credit should be given to leaders such as Botswana's president, Seretse Khama Ian Khama who refused to recongize the legitimacy of the run-off election. Kenya's Prime Minister Raila Odinga said "They (the African Union) should suspend him and send peace forces to Zimbabwe to ensure free and fair elections." Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf was also outspoken in her criticism of Mugabe. Even at the announcement of the made in Africa deal Mugabe said, “African problems must be solved by Africans...The problem we have had is a problem that has been created by former colonial power. Why, why, why the hand of the British? Why, why, why the hand of the Americans here? Let us ask that.

I smell another problem, call it fuzziness. Consultations with input from various groups are to start within a month on a new constitution with a referendum to be held within two years. Things get fuzzy from there, I've read reports saying Mugabe will control the army while Tsvangrai gets the police, others that say such institutions are to be impartial to parties. In the end, who cares? How are these people going to sit across from the table from eachother? Talk about skeletons in the closet! Ever since Mugabe began to lose his grip on power in the run up to parliamentary elections in June 2000, his Xanu-PF party has used killing, kidnapping and other violence as its modus operandi, with MDC supporters more often than not the target. The Zimbabwe Peace Project has recorded 16,400 cases of human rights violations this year alone. While denying that Mugabe himself would be the target of justice, Tsvangrai did say that senior members of Mugabe's party could be held accountable for the violence. Cracks were appearing in the Xanu-PF party as early as Tuesday, with hardliners resisting the deal, many will be left out of the cabinet or could lose their governor posts that are to be shared with the MDC. Mugabe and his henchmen have everything to lose in this deal.

The sheer size of the task at hand would be enough to tear apart a normal government, let alone one with three opposing factions. Tsvangirai said the first task of the new government would be to "unlock the food already in the country and distribute it to our people". He failed to mention that it has been kept locked up by Mugabe, who wished to ensure it got distributed only to his supporters, while opposition supporters were deliberately starved. Another big issue will be the sacking of Gideon Gono as Governor of the Reserve Bank. Mugabe has used Gono, a key henchman and his own private banker, to control the economy; and Gono has in turn been rewarded with stolen farms and other looted assets. Foreign donors have made it clear that not a cent will be handed over while Gono remains in office; but if he goes, so does Mugabe’s control of the economy. Yes, quite a work of art he has created with inflation officially running over 11,000,000% but some believe may be as high as 40 million! The third major task will be the the professionalization of security forces that until now have acted as partisan thugs for Mugabe and his henchmen. Particulary bringing the murderous "war vets" and Green Bomber youth league under control, both of which were instrumental to Mugabe’s efforts to terrorize white farmers and opposition blacks. In other words, the agenda favoured both by Tsvangirai and the major Western donors will serve to dismantle Mugabe’s violent and corrupt system, and prepare the way for free elections in which both Mugabe and his party will face annihilation. Doesn't seem very likely that Mugabe will let this happen. Predictably, since the signing, nothing has happened as Mugabe simply bides his time, dragging his feet before anything of substance happens.

So with the world momentarily appeased with the signing of the power sharing "unity government" deal, in which somehow Mugabe is meant to draw policy, while Tsvangirai's parellel council of ministers are meant to implement it, Mr. Mugabe is off to the United Nations. The deal won't accomplish anything until the impasse over the nuts and bolts, specifically who gets which ministries, are resolved. This won't happen quickly as at the same time Mugabe must try to keep his supporters happy, many of whom will lose important posts with implementation. He told his party that the deal was a "humiliation", but necessary because of the party's dismal performance in the only real elections, those of March 29th. At least three-quarters of the 49-member politburo will lose their posts in the proposed government of national unity, so they're in no rush. It's becoming increasingly clear that the 'end-game' hasn't played itself out, what that will be still isn't clear, but Mugabe's signature on a piece of paper hasn't solved anything yet.

Zimbabwe Update #3

Just a quick note. Morgan Tsvangirai has declared that he is pulling out of the presidential election. The announcement came the day after one of his party's (DMC) rallies was reportedly broken up by a pro-Mugabe youth militia. The full Reuter's story is here. It's disappointing, but I can't say I blame them for the decision. The violence would only have escalated in the next week culminating on election day, when Tsvangirai supporters would most likely have been massacred. And the world sits idly by.

Zimbabwe, Somewhere in Africa

With a little over a week to go until the run-off election for president in Zimbabwe, the news that does manage to come out of the country seems to get worse and worse by the day. It feels like forever and a day since I last wrote about Zimbabwe. It was only April 20th, three weeks after the first round of the election and no results had yet been announced. Of course we now know the result was a slim margin of victory for Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC, but without an absolute majority, thus the necessity of a run-off election between him and Robert Mugabe. It's hard to imagine how things could be worse than those dark days, but somehow Mr. Mugabe and his thugs have managed to make it so.

Since April 20th a short recap:
May 2 - Electoral body says Tsvangirai won most votes in the presidential election, but not enough to avoid a run-off against Mugabe. Opposition rejects the result.
May 10 - Tsvangirai says he will contest the run-off even though he believes he won outright.
May 16 - Run-off is set for June 27.
May 19 - Opposition accuses military intelligence agents of a plot to kill Tsvangirai, forcing him to postpone his return to the country. The government dismisses the plot as a propaganda stunt.
May 24 - Tsvangirai returns to Zimbabwe and says Mugabe wants to decimate opposition structures before the run-off.
May 29 - Mugabe says his government has bought 600,000 tonnes of maize to ease food shortages.
June 3 - Zimbabwe orders Care International to suspend its operations after accusing it of political interference.
June 4 - Police release Tsvangirai after holding him for more than eight hours while he was campaigning for the June 27 run-off.
June 5 - Zimbabwean government bans all work by foreign aid agencies

The last couple of weeks are seeing an even quicker pace to the craziness going down as Tsvangirai has been arrested and released numerous times. Almost all the opposition officials have been arrested, killed, forced into hiding or worse. It is a surreal game to see how far he can go it seems. I am definitely convinced of the syphilis story now, Mugabe is mad. When a leader of a nation says things like "We shed a lot of blood for this country. We are not going to give up our country for a mere X on a ballot. How can a ballpoint pen fight with a gun?" why even hold the election? Even if without any effective campaign by the opposition due to the campaign of intimidation being conducted by Mugabe's Xanu-PF party Tsvangai somehow manages to get enough people to actually vote for him, on ballots that won't even be counted properly, it won't matter because Mugabe will stay in power by force if need be. Long sentence, but it has passed the ludicrous point as the UN promises to send observers for the election and Zimbabwe's neighbours sit idly by. Ban Ki-Moon tells the generally assembly of the UN that "Should these conditions continue to prevail, the legitimacy of the election outcomes would be in question," and these are referred to as harsh words as hundreds die and a war has been threatened on the people if they don't vote the right way.

But wait, Condoleeza Rice is going to sit down with the foreign minister of Burkina Faso, together chairing a round table discussion on Zimbabwe. Being that this month's security council president is the US, I'm sure a lot will be done. US+UN=ummm. What we must need is a League of Democracies. The aid the UN is sending is being stolen from hungry people dealing with inflation in the millions of percentages by the men in power, making it even more ironic that this used to be the breadbasket of Africa. That's the point I guess, it's Africa. At the same time a bit north Chad and Sudan try to add full scale war to the little genocide problem happening; Simon Mann's trial gets under way in Equatorial Guinea (high on the where's that factor, here). Oh yeah, that's the one Margaret Thatcher's son, Sir Mark Thatcher had to pay what amounted to a 265,000 pound fine for his role in the whole coup thing. There is a lot going on there to fix. Let's not mention the whole sure to have a pretty large scale famine as food prices skyrocket, which effects the poor first, and this is one continent that has gotten a whole lot poorer while the rest have gotten richer thing.

When Tsvangirai was touring Africa last month while his life was threatened by murder plots, his last stop was South Africa (read this link to see what president Mbeki is doing). A country whose leadership I expect to do something, maybe it's the whole Mandela effect. But the best plan anyone seems to come up with is for them to cut the electricity off if Mugabe steals the election. My dream was that on his return to the country, Tsvangirai would have walked across the border into Zimbabwe with the millions of displaced compatriots that have fled there in recent years. The timing coincided with the xenophobic violence at the time in South Africa, he would lead them to the ballot boxes as one unstoppable force. Most of my students here in Poland like most of the world don't even know there is trouble in Zimbabwe, let alone the difference between it, Zaire or Zambia. Despite the intimidation campaigns that have been conducted here in the past, it's more important to buy a new God Car or head down to the mall. If only Zimbabwe was in the Middle East and had oil. Even little things could help, such as national teams boycotting the Zimbabwe cricket team. However, it's not broad coalitions of words that will help end the bloodshed.