Here we go again. Poland goes to the poles October 9th to elect members of the lower (the Sejm) and upper (the Senate) houses of parliament. Owing much to the language barrier and the near-indecipherability of the alphabet soup that makes up the party system, I've learned more about politics in Afghanistan than in Poland over my five years of living here. But it's more than just words with five-letter consonant clusters ('Szczwana wieszczka wskrzesiła przechrztę' - More or less 'The crafty female prophet resurrected a convert') and letters decorated with diacritics (ą ć ę ł ń ó ś ź ż) that makes it so hard to penetrate Polish politics, it's a society built on a long history of loss, upheaval, dashed hopes and survival that has created a poisonous political climate that turns many people off. With seven parties running candidates in every electoral district along with four others fielding a few, it would seem the voters are offered a wide spectrum of choice, true democracy, but scratch a little deeper and the particular dichotomies of Polish democracy are revealed.
I'd guesstimate that nearly the same percentage of Poles would profess their faith in democracy as to the Roman Catholic Church, around 95%. Coincidentally, somewhere about half of those eligible to vote will bother to cast a ballot come Sunday, about the same percentage who will join their flock for prayers in the pews during Sunday mass. Both numbers have fallen steadily since the fall of the wall, after all there's a plethora of new malls open on Sunday to which they prefer to make their pilgrimages to pray to the shinier gods of consumerism. Ballots and bibles pale in comparison to BMWs and iPhones making the outcome of Sunday's election a foregone conclusion, one determined by technocrats in Brussels and traders in London and New York instead of the people themselves. Donald Tusk will remain prime minister becoming the first since the fall of communism two decades ago to win two consecutive terms. (They did re-elect Aleksander Kwaśniewski as president, but in Poland the head of state holds little real power.)
Geology, geography and history haven't been overly kind to Poland. The curse of an abundant supply of carcinogenesis, climate change causing coal and neighbors on either side with occasional expansionist itchings have doomed the country to backwardness and suspicion. For every moment of historic glory like the Battle of Grunwald there's a Jedwabne, Katyń or Auschwitz to cast a shadow on Polish pride. It was partitioned three times in the 18th century, disappearing completely off the map for 123 years and the victim of both fascism and communism (well, Soviet totalitarianism) in the 20th century. Yet, since 1989, Poland has been held up as a model to the world of what democracy and capitalism can bring a nation. After all, Poland was the only OECD nation not to fall into recession following the 2008 financial crisis. It is these very rose-coloured glasses, however, that make it difficult for the average Pole to see the economic, political and environmental dangers that lurk around every corner.
It's easy to understand the average Poles basic economic math: Capitalism = Good; Socialism = Bad. After all, the nation's economy was left in ruins as a result of 45 years of Soviet domination. The Balcerowicz Plan, implemented in 1989, is held up as a success story of Shock Therapy, a neoliberal triumph, as market reforms have led to rising average incomes and inclusion in the European Union in 2004. Mix this myth making with that of the Catholic Church and it's little wonder that many Poles give thanks for their feeling of prosperity from car-filled streets and new technological gadgets to the holy trinity of Pope John Paul II, Ronald Reagan, and Margaret Thatcher. The reality though is 2004 simply formalized the need for market conformity created in 1989, the drive for eurozone membership institutionalized social cuts in the name of progress. Transition and ascension are part of the same pathology; the intensification of neoliberal restructuring of European social relations of production.
While the reforms of '89 tamed inflation and the budget deficit and made a market economy possible, Balcerowicz himself later admitted that he neglected to consider the element of human motivation in his calculations, while his adviser, Jeffrey Sachs, who also oversaw the transition to crony capitalism in Russia, has criticized his own advice as incorrect. Overnight, wealth was transferred from one elite to another as the people in nomenklatura positions in 1989 were able to convert their political capital into private economic wealth, while the prole Poles once again had to adjust to a new reality, trading one master for another. Ironically, the alteration of class forces saw those who had struggled the most to establish freedom and democracy come out as the biggest losers. Solidarity, a movement guided by the principles of worker self-government, self-management and the 'self-liberation' of civil society implemented the neoliberal economic shock therapy that has led to trade unions being virtually nonexistent in the private sector and on a clear path to complete extinction. It also created a political divide as those who were in the right place (and the right age) at the right time instantly became entrepreneurs and executives while those who were unconnected or too old fell by the wayside helping create today's populist political climate.
Both main parties in Poland today trace their roots to Solidarity, PiS (Law and Justice) may be the favoured among the more religious but it's the PO (Platform) that pushes the right buttons to appeal to today's god, finance. Instead of taking advantage of the growing class divide, PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczinski opts to play to the xenophobic fears of the semi-literate, while the prime minister gets a pass on policy problems, like pension reform, poverty and the ecoside of hydraulic fracturing. A perfect example took place this March when Kaczynski paid a PR visit to a local shop to spotlight the increasing burden of rising food prices and blurted "We didn’t go to Biedronka [a cheap supermarket chain] where the poorest people do their shopping but to a local shop". A perfect opportunity was wasted to point out that while there are more goods and services available today than ever, prices of those most basic, such as sugar and rice, have skyrocketed thanks to the pernicious influence of the financial markets which have also brought escalating job insecurity and decreases in real wages with particular sections of the population worst hit, for example the elderly and rural communities. Kaczynski, instead of the markets, was once again demonized in the press (Polish link). As the Washington Post put it, PO can count on the votes of many of the younger wine and cappuccino-drinking Poles in cities buoyed by the country’s growing wealth while PiS is popular among the less privileged, less educated and those outside the cities.
We may make fun of the American two-party system that cheers on the near-indistinguishable red and blue teams to determine who gets the chance to govern in the name of their corporate sponsors, but at least they represent American interests, albeit of the elite 1%. In Poland, what they say in the Vatican, Brussels and London determine the results and right now, the PO has the confidence of the latter two as they are more likely to follow the neoliberal policy handbook of privatization and deregulation. Meanwhile, the more reactionary PiS is portrayed as further to the right, which is true in terms of social policies but they are much to the left of PO in terms of economics. In this blackwhite world, stability is increasing economic dislocation, freeing the market is seen as the more stable course though it leads to perpetual upheaval, increasing political union with a failing EU is a victory while sacrifice in a perpetual war to aid an ally who has abandoned and humiliated you time and again is a moral duty.
As the Arab Spring turns to the American Autumn (or Fall as you prefer), most Poles are completely oblivious to the changes that are sweeping the globe. Willfully blindfolded, boxed in by their beliefs and their information sources, they believe things will continue to improve if they just toe the line and follow the Financial Times advice. The other ballot box choice may defend Polish economic sovereignty but also advocate an increased role for the church while persecuting anyone different and humiliate you in the eyes of that mythical west over and over again. A vote for PO is a vote for the least bad choice. The Polish political paradigm (hey what do you know, that's PPP, just like a right wingnut party) makes the conspiracy theorist the mainstream, in which Tusk collaborated with the Russians to bring down the presidential plane last year. This distraction gives a free pass to stealing pensions while hiding the fact that the retirement age will have to go up to align with EU standards, or using roadwork accounting tricks and selling state assets that can only be sold once in a vain attempt to fill budget gaps while advocating handing over economic decision making to Brussels and Berlin.
Russian conspiracies have always dominated Polish politics adding to the irrationality. Did Catherine the Great's influence on her former lover Stanislaw August Poniatowski the last king of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth lead to the partitions? Although Piłsudski pretty much won the Polish-Bolshevik war of 1919-21 it didn't stop his opponents from branding him as a Russian agent. Many still believe Lech Wałęsa was a Soviet agent so it's not surprising to see Kaczynski trying to play to the Polish fear of the Russian menace. Chasing ghosts however, allows real conspiracies to pass undetected. See, Poland seems to have lots of natural gas but unfortunately it's trapped in shale deep underground, possibly 5.3 trillion cubic meters, energy independence from Russia for decades. Back in 2005, as Vice President of the US, Dick Cheney got the Energy Act passed which exempted his former company Halliburton's method of extracting shale gas, hydraulic fracturing, from environmental laws. Now, despite obvious environmental and health problems to humans and animals that have mushroomed in the regions where 'fracking' has taken place, Poles are being sold on its safety by advertising how widely used it is in America. Meanwhile, the recent opening of the Northstream pipeline that cuts out Poland as gas is transported directly to Germany under the Baltic from Russia will mix in some minds with someone whispering that the Oscar nominated Gasland, which documented the harmful effects of fracking, was financed by Russian gas giant Gasprom, seriously, you can't make this fantasyland up.
Of course, the real winner will be big oil and the losers the Polish people. Foreign capital will flow in to provide, well, capital equipment, to pump the poison into the earth to release the gas to sell here and abroad, taking the profits and leaving the mess. The French revoking gas permits, the delay in issuing permits in Wales and the German report raising concerns about uncertainty over fracking are all thanks to Russian meddling too I'm sure. Nothing to do with the millions of gallons of water mixed with hundreds of chemicals, including known carcinogens, pumped through the water table, only some of which is recovered, dozens of times for each of the hundreds or thousands of wells. Another irony is to be found in the justification for fracking that the gas will lessen dependence on climate change causing coal, currently used in 95% of Polish energy production, even though most Poles will tell you that global warming is, well, a conspiracy. Donald Tusk's government has announced they will veto any move by the EU to ban or limit fracking and the ninety shale gas exploration permits that have been issued so far to energy companies such as Total and ExxonMobil will be pumping gas by 2014. Most of the public won't know what hit them as the propaganda machine of Polish Gas and Oil Mining Company (PGNiG) will propagate the benefits of shale gas with "The Flame of Hope" advertising campaign.
Neither the PO or PiS has a realistic shot at winning an outright majority of the seats with both polling around 30% and will therefore need to find allies to form a coalition government. The party that wins the most votes is charged with forming a government whose final makeup will depend not only on which party wins but by how much. In order to enter parliament, a party need to attain 5% of the vote, leaving only three other parties with a realistic shot. Presently the junior coalition partner is the PSL (Polish Peasants' Party), formerly a left-of-center-now centrist party with roots dating back to the inter-war period which under the guise of the United People's Party (ZSL) was officially recognized during communism, that now has a mainly rural and small town electoral base. However, their market-unfriendly ideas, including a referendum on whether to go ahead with Poland's nuclear power program along the five main themes of their manifesto, social security, food, economy, environmental safety and state have them on the outs. More troubling is their influence on EU farm subsidy allocation which has led to not only distortions in rural-urban migration but have seen an explosion of fraudulent-yet-legal organic farms.
While a series of political scandals were the official reason for the SLD slide, it's really their link with the Soviet era. This is of course the biggest conspiracy of all, that Poland lived under communist rule for 45 years, creating a distrust among many, especially the young who only heard the stories, for all things deemed socialist. Yet, no matter what you think about the USSR, it was not communist and by the transitive law, this means neither was Poland. It is important to know that the original thoughts of Marx and Engels were indeed the absolute opposite of Stalinism, Maoism etc. Russia managed to achieve socialism for a very short while immediately after the revolution. But this newly-fledged socialism was defeated in the most humiliating way. Not only did the counter-revolution win over the communists but it kept the name and the symbols to the overjoy of the capitalists of the rest of the world. Russian communism ceased to exist as soon as Stalin came to power. The most fitting description of the USSR and by extension Poland from 1945 to 1989 is State Capitalism. Simply, the state took on the role of the ultimate Capitalist and set about exploiting the workers. Some of the practices it had, like the suppression of individuality, the strict hierarchical spread of power and the like, are identical to the ones within a corporation, or for that matter, the EU. Others, like it’s inability to work efficiently or its large bureaucracy are problems that any sufficiently large corporation has as well. There hasn’t been a corporation of the sheer size of the Soviet Union of course so a direct comparison is impossible, but looking at the dinosauric movements of some of the biggest ones certainly points in that direction. As for the EU, well, most of us see where that's heading.
The electoral triumph of PiS back in 2005 turned into a disaster for Poland. The twin brother-prime minister-president-pair's pledge to end corruption and restore moral integrity to the country was sidetracked by scandal and extremism. The political forces that offered resistance to the neoliberal onslaught were also xenophobic and nationalistic. With allies such as LPR (League of Polish Families) and Andrzej Lepper's Samoobrona (Self Defense) there were high profile attacks on gay rights, movements to reintroduce the death penalty and demands for a complete ban on abortion. Not only did this have the negative effect of humiliating Poland on the international stage, they poisoned any anti-EU/neoliberal position due to their association with such a stance. So, although one needn't be a homophobic xenophobe who wants the US to build missiles to point at Russia to maintain a sober, take it slow approach with a faltering EU project, that is the public's perception. Mix this with their ties to the Catholic Church and increases to social benefits during their rule and we can easily see how resentment on the part of 'successful' Poles for the poor has been fertilized. Playing on these feelings along with the perpetual Polish inferiority complex is the PO playbook in matters such as health care, welfare, pensions and privatization.
Of course the health care system has problems, the devious scam the welfare system, the pension system is bankrupt and the trains are overcrowded and never on time. That's what happens when only 6.7% of GDP went to health care in 2009, well below levels elsewhere. This financial squeeze creates waiting lists up to 12 weeks to see a cardiac consultant manufacturing resentment for the public system, one in three believe the system is poor and since cash seems to guarantee speedier service, many believe they'd be better off with an American system. As baby steps are taken towards privatization no one mentions the fact that the US spends more any other country, 16% of GDP, and growing faster than anywhere else, for a system that consistently underperforms relative to other developed countries. Welfare doesn't help if you just pay people to get drunk like they do in Poland but instead of reforming the system, the elite are happy to see resentment build and thus justify the reduction and elimination of any kind of social safety net.
Instead of using the EU's clarification that what is owed to private pension funds counts as part of the government's liabilities as an opportunity to reform pensions by among other things allowing competition among government pension plans and admitting the retirement age will have to be raised to bring the system in line with EU standards the government chose sleight of hand. Shunting taxpayers' money from privately managed pension funds to government controlled 'ZUS managed' funds just makes the numbers look temporarily less terrifying, at least until after the election. As far as anyone can see any logical purpose behind this arrogantly arbitrary move, it is to temporarily and very marginally slow down the rapid rise of the budget deficit. Rather than irritate voters in an election year the government made a grab at future pensioners' savings, issuing unfunded IOUs in return. Rather than use EU funds earmarked for railway improvements it's more politically astute to divert some of that money to roads when the budget for the latter runs out, achieving the double goal of heightening public discontent with publicly owned trains and thus more willing to accept privatization as well as using creative accounting to stay below the budget cap.
The official name of Poland is Rzeczpospolita Polska, that difficult looking world means 'common cause'. While the last 20+ years have been good in many ways for much of the population, there is an increasing unwillingness to examine the direction of society and attempt to correct its course, away from the common cause of greed and graft, toward the common cause of a healthy society. The more distasteful side to Poland's 'successful' transition are massive permanent unemployment, widespread and continuing poverty and the removal of the historical layers of social protection. In an era of apparent increasing prosperity, a significant portion of the community is being left behind. Poland is increasingly marked by 'traditional' forms of poverty that have emerged since the collapse of traditional cradle-to-grave welfare provision but there are striking changes in the nature and shape of poverty. Many of the new poor are simply not represented in official statistics. The official unemployment rate is intentionally emphasized as the figure is distorted by considerable concealed unemployment, up to one third simply don't bother to register as benefits have declined over the transition period with further restrictions coming in 2002. One needs to be blind or be intentionally ignoring the legions of homeless people roaming from dumpster to dumpster or the surplus of twenty-something kurwa spewing (mostly) men with nothing better to do than scrounge up their next beer. Unemployment is concentrated in rural communities where there is a considerable surplus of labor resources, a problem temporarily allayed by mass migration following EU ascension but threatening to become a big problem now so many are returning following the perpetual economic crisis. Opportunity to those in the east are exemplified by a 2004 study that found only one in every 130 children from a peasant background reaches higher education.
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9 comments:
You jump to conclusions that seem to verify your POV a little bit too easily. Anti-communist rhetorics weren't heard in these elections and the fact that PiS doesn't resort to them much anymore stands for something - and the fact that you failed to correctly assess current leitmotifs in Polish politics casts doubts over the relevance of the rest of your article.
Actually, being a Pole I'd say that most (if not all) of the conclusions you made on your own are simply wrong and result from adapting an all-western perspective that is not sufficient in these parts. Also, being a leftist and a sociologist in spe myself I feel partly amused and partly offended by the notion of "legions of homeless dumpster divers".
I'll grant you that Kaczynski softened his rhetoric in the run up to the election about the Russian-PO plot to down the plane that killed his brother but the fact is, his point of view had already been consumed by would be voters. Curious what you thought about Kaczynski's assertions in his new book, the release of which was timed to coincide with the election. If making claims that Germany has "imperial ambitions" and had sought an "axis with Russia" aren't designed to stoke age-old Polish fears, I don't know what are. What drives me crazy is that these are the same tricks that are and will be used to justify ecological destruction in the mad rush to frack for gas to free the Poles from Russian dependence. Kaczynski even claimed that Chancellor Angela Merkel came to power with the help of the East German secret police!
As for the dumpster diver comment, admittedly not the most politically correct way to put it (well, I didn't even call them dumpster divers). Maybe you don't have a balcony overlooking a courtyard but from mine it looks like an enormous problem that Poles simply ignore, something they've perfected on the trams when seated next to folks whose smell makes their eyes water while avoiding stepping on the bottles of beer or vodka rolling out of their hands. I don't mean to cast aspersions on the poor, simply point out that it seems to be a problem most prefer to ignore than to face.
Considering my inability to correctly assess current leitmotifs in Polish politics, you've gotta admit my predictions, as much as were made, were pretty spot on. I hope one day I'll get my Polish up to speed to enjoy your fine looking blog to see what you have to say.
Hi Shane, it's Michal, that's a pretty thorough post and I admit having read at least 60-70% of it, which I like to see as success considering how your usual length and breadth of analysis stops me early on.
I take your criticism on many points present in Polish politics, but I'm kind of getting tired hearing the same old line of thinking reiterated in another context (bad, bad deregulation, privatization, financial markets, EU). Why don't you define an alternative which is more than just debunking free market myths? Is there a positive way of looking at things? Is there a way out? I'd be happy to see you write a manifestor for the Polish people to wake up and create something new. Define this new in no uncertain terms. No supply and demand side bullshit, no refering to hazy notions of unfulfilled socialism, a couple of practical tips instead. I dare you Shame Nahumko!
Indignez-vous MS! Tunisia to Spain, Brussels, Rome and Athens. I'm quite hopeful that the occupy movement may offer a framework, or at least a forum, for discussing what we see happening and coming together on decisions about what needs to be done. It's a long process but they could be laying the groundwork. I'd like to see a social network type of Facebook alternative coming out of it at the very least.
I was at the Poznan #oct15 event, there were about 20 folks, some of them banging drums for awhile, others passing leaflets. Not you're kind, anarchists pushing labour rights (the horror!) - http://www.rozbrat.org/ I got a little bit of information, I know their next 'action' is on Tuesday at noon at city hall. I don't think the one day events are enough though, you need to create a space to share ideas for a period of time like they've been doing on Wall Street. The whole knowing that others know what you know when you're talking with people is pretty powerful to experience.
Enough might learn to not sleepwalk to our destruction through debt, war and/or climate catastrophe making it the most important thing in the world right now. Blah, blah, I know, but this is more than just a bunch of hippies and cops with pepper spray. (BTW did you see the chick get punched by the cop last night? 1:38 mark - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZcJ31g0ScQ) Wackiness, laters.
Well, when it comes to Palikot we may understand his success through the human psychology. His party manifesto adressed the issues which are present all the time in the Polish media and people automatically associate them with negative feelings.
Let me elaborate on this concept. If we go further into psychology of human being, the 'thinking process' may be divided into 3 levels. First - the most controlled one - logic thinking. The way we formulate our thoughts and express them, abstract thinking and concepts - it all belongs here. The second level are emotions - here is the thing we are not really in control of, but still - we are able to overcome emotions with logic thinking if our logic thinking and intelligence are strong enough. The third level are our physiological needs - sex, breathing, food, discharge of waste and so on. This level cannot be fully controlled, although we are able to control it to some extent. The key is to control these two levels with our logic thinking. Not everybody can do that.
How the concept above is related to Palikot? Well, Palikot adressed the issues, that have the biggest emotional connotations in our minds. E.g. he used the fact that we, young people, hate [yes, hate] the connection between the church and the government, so he put in separation of these in his manifesto - in this way he gained some percentage of the votes...
The second thing - he emerged from nowhere. Like 2 weeks before the elections. And the media were focused on him. So - clever move BTW - the campaign has been made for him by the Polish media.
Hope this will be a food for thought.
J.
I agree Jacek, Palikot played his cards well, appearing out of nowhere late in the election cycle and playing on the feeling of frustration that many youths have about the role of the church in Polish life. Quite scary in a way, most people I've spoken to who voted for him have no idea what he represents other than being someone different who is against the church. Much of the rest of his platform is unknown to me other than the fact he supports a flat tax, another lure for Poles who are fed up with too much bureaucracy. Too bad it's such a stupid idea it makes my brain hurt. Oh well, at least he's stirring the pot a bit about the cross hanging in the Sejm (an issue I hear Boniecki supports!) - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15663605
Please explain how "Aushwitz" (sic) could possibly "cast a shadow on Polish pride" -- as opposed to German pride. Are you alluding to the slanderous notion of "Polish concentration camps", by any chance?
Thanks for pointing out the typo, suppose I've gotten too used to the Polish spelling, Oświęcim. I can understand someone taking offense at the notion of the horrors perpetrated at places like Auschwitz somehow wounding Polish pride. I wasn't insinuating that the camps were set up by Poles, they were clearly German camps, but I was stating that the atrocities were committed on Polish soil. That in itself seems to be a stain on the past. I wasn't even addressing the issue of Polish anti-semitism which I can assure you is as present as other places despite the potent symbolic reminder of where hatred can lead.
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