That's right, I'm baaack! Time to cross another summer off the calender as fake Labo(u)r Day has passed meaning the days are growing shorter and colder here in the northern hemisphere, I've returned from vacation and most importantly, the NFL season is about to kickoff. This year feels a little different than usual, having spent the last few months making my first return visit home to Canada in five years along with a couple stops in Spain and Italy, but a post on my impressions of home after such a long absence will just have to wait (hint: How are Canada and brussel sprouts similar? They're both green and bland). After all, just because the world of politics, the economy and the environment seem to be stuck in some kind of eerie holding pattern, that doesn't mean a new season of football won't have a bagful of surprises in store for us. So here are some pithy observations, prognostications, witticisms, criticisms and picks for the 2010/11 NFL season.
NFC South - Chumps to Champs and the American Dream?
|"I'm going to Disneyland!"|
Oops, where was I? Oh yeah, football, New Orleans Saints, better look at their division. We should get much the same from the defending champs; a heavy dose of QB Drew Brees spreading the ball around to a multitude of weapons and an opportunistic defense which bends but doesn't break. The Atlanta Falcons look to have the best shot at unseating last year's NFC South division winning Saints. A better year from Matt Ryan seems likely with the return of a healthier Michael Turner to boost the running game. WR Roddy White is back along with TE Tony Gonzalez (999 career receptions - about to become the first tight end to 1000) to provide Matt the necessary targets. Unfortunately they also boasted the 28th best, or should I say 5th worst, pass defense in the league, meaning Brees and co in New Orleans should stay on top. In Carolina, the Matt Moore era at QB means the Panthers won't be able to claw to the top with or without the real Steve Smith back from a broken arm. Which leaves us with the Bucs. Since their Super Bowl victory in 2002, this has been a team in decline and this year won't be any different. Cadillac blows a tire by week three and not even Kareem Huggins' cool name at RB will be enough to pull them out of the cellar. Sorry Tampa Bay but Horatio Alger is just a fairy tale in 2010 America.
Predicted Finish: Saints 13-3; Falcons 10-6; Panthers 8-8; Buccaneers 3-13
NFC North - Favre and the more things don't change
The last time Brett Favre didn't start at quarterback for his team it was 1992, the Packers were 0-2, their starting QB was Don "the Magic Man" Majkowski and George Bush the elder was president. Tonight he plays his 287th consecutive game (310 counting playoffs) since that long lost September game brought Brett in to replace an injured Majkowski and throw two 4th quarter TD's to lead his team to a 24-23 come from behind victory.
What more can be written in the Brett Favre saga? Another summer of will he or won't he play has brought us back to where we were last year, the more things change, the more they do in fact stay the same. Diva? Drama queen? Sure, maybe, yet all seemed well in Purpleland when Brett Favre got off the plane with his three retrievers a couple of weeks ago. Not so fast I'm afraid. First, reigning offensive rookie of the year Percy Harvin pukes and collapses on the practice field and is taken away to hospital for observation due to a migraine problem that he has battled all his life. Then, out of the blue, team leading receiver Sidney Rice announces that he's having hip surgery and will miss at least the first half of the season. Suddenly, the players who caught 143 of the 377 passes completed by the Vikings last year were very much in doubt. Will Adrian Peterson be able to lose his bad case of fumbleitis and pick up the slack? Is that defensive line starting to crack?
Enter this year's sexy pick to win the Super Bowl, the Green Bay Packers. Seems that Favre guy was at least replaceable at Lambeau as Aaron Rogers has joined Drew Brees and Peyton Manning at the top of the league's QB chart. Targets aren't a problem with WRs Greg Jennings, perennial 1000 yarder Donald Driver and unmissable target, superfreak Jermichael Finley at tight end back for another year. Quietly efficient RB Ryan Grant is also back. Despite having given up 51 points in a loss to the Arizona Cardinals the last time the games meant something in the playoffs last year, the Pack D should be solid featuring last year's NFL defensive player of the year Charles Woodson. Which leaves us with Bears and Lions fighting to stay out of the basement. It may seem weird to pick a team that has won a grand total of two games over the same number of years but I've got a feeling about this edition of the Detroit Lions. Call me crazy, but I see Mathew Stafford picking up his game a notch and finding Megatron (WR Calvin Johnson) in the end zone more often than last year. The addition of WR Nate Burleson on the other side may free Johnson at least from triple coverage. If the teams two first round draft picks pan out, RB Jahvid Best adding a bit of flash to the backfield and DT Ndamukong Suh adding some teeth to the defensive line, Detroit just may squeeze by Chicago. Of course, you never know with QB Jay Cutler at the helm of a Mike Martz offense for the Bears, he may put up 40 touchdowns or throw 40 picks.
Predicted Finish: Packers 13-3, Vikings 10-6, Lions 6-10, Bears 6-10
NFC East - Of Stadiums, Debt and Wannabees
The Super Bowl is coming to Cowboy Stadium February 6, 2011. The question everyone seems to be asking is if the Cowboys will be on the field or if their shiny stadium will play host to a couple of interlopers. Jerry Jones got his brand new super-sized toilet bowl last year, a sparkling bauble that can host over 100,000 fans, and he hopes that Romo and the 'boys will bring him his first title since 1996. There's no question they've got the offensive firepower to do it with Miles Austin looking to build on his breakout season last year at WR, a rookie first-round pick (who hasn't played a competitive down in over a year) lining up on the other side in Dez Bryant, Jason Witten back at tight end and a trio of running backs who could all start in the NFL, Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. Wait, isn't that Kim Kardashian in the stands? OMG, and who's that sitting beside her? It's Candice Crawford and her sister Chace. WTF, who gives a shit. Who are these people? If there's one team that embodies the vapidness of American culture, it's the Dallas Cowboys. With Tony Romo having moved on from Jessica Simpson to whoever the hell is Candice Crawford and Miles Austin dating the current queen of fame for no good reason, Kim Kardashian, fans will be just as interested in who's sitting in the wives and girlfriend seats as what's happening on the field. We all remember what Jessica Simpson did to Romo and the Cowboys the last time they were picked for the Super Bowl in the 2008 playoffs against the Giants.
|Use the magnifying glass to clarify|
Errr, right. Football. NFC East. The Cowboys hold onto their crown as those Giants, Eagles and Redskins nip at their heals. Dallas' preseason offensive woes will prove to be just that, preseason woes, as they're offense carries them to another title. The Giants contend as Eli continues to grow with his talented group of wideouts, they rely more on Ahmad Bradshaw than Brandon Jacobs to carry the rock and their defense becomes more Giant-like thanks to an outstanding pass rush and gives up less points than last years third worst total in the NFL. In Philadelphia the fans will rue losing their scapegoat as new starting QB Kevin Kolb has trouble in his first full year. Yep, the Eagles let Donovan McNabb go and he signed with the divisional rival Redskins where he'll join fellow newcomer head coach Mike Shanahan in trying to overcome a decade of underachievement and the Albert Haynesworth saga. The October 3rd game between the Eagles and Redskins will go a long way in determining the basement dweller in the NFC Beast.
Predicted Finish: Cowboys 12-4; Giants 9-7; Eagles 8-8; Redskins 7-9
NFC West - The Ugly Sister
When the NFL went to the eight division format in 2002 the idea was to put more teams into the playoff picture at the end of the year to hold the fans interest a bit longer. Unfortunately a side effect of realignment has been a tendency for there to be a couple of stronger divisions where good teams miss the playoffs (see last years' 11-5 Patriots) and weaker divisions where otherwise crappy teams do make the playoffs (read: 2008/9 AFC West). This years leading contender for stinker division is the NFC West. Tops in the division last year, the Phoenix Cardinals, seem poised to take the biggest nosedive in the NFL. The loss of Kurt Warner to retirement seemed to mean that Matt Leinhart would finally get a chance to prove his worth as a former first round draft choice but alas, his California surfer boy attitude proved too much for the desert and he was cut, meaning lifetime 52.9% completion rate (and 44.5% last year) QB Derek Anderson will be tasked with trying to get the ball to all-world wideout Larry Fitzgerald.
This means the door is wide open for a new division champ and the only team that seems to come anywhere near being half-decent here is the San Francisco 49ers. Coach Mike Singletary seems on the verge of completing the transformation of this team from West Coast lightweight into a reflection of his smashmouth playing days with the Chicago Bears. As long as Alex Smith is able to take the next step in his second year as starter behind centre, Vernon Davis has anywhere near as good a year as last at TE, Frank Gore stays healthy and 2nd year WR Michael Crabtree sheds his primadonna rep, the offense should be good enough to compliment what may be the NFL's second best defense. What? There's two more teams in the division? Really, the St. Louis Rams and Seattle Seahawks both have all the ingredients to be champs of NFL Europe. Oh wait, what's that you say? The league folded in 2007. Yes, they just might be able to win a defunct league. Overall #1 2010 draft pick QB Sam Bradford takes the reins in St. Louis only to find there's no one to throw the ball to and therefore will hand the ball off a new league record 400 times to Steven Jackson whose spine fuses on the last day of the season while the Shithawks will be forced to throw uniforms on a few homeless people in order to fill out their roster after cutting half the team. Regardless of whether or not you can find pity in your heart for new coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are a good argument against expanding the regular season to 18 games.
Predicted finish: 49ers 10-6; Cardinals 7-9; Seahawks 3-13; Rams 2-14
AFC South - The More Things Don't Change II?
It was almost surreal. The Super Bowl. 3:24 left in the 4th quarter. Trailing 24-17 Peyton Manning takes the snap from centre. It wasn't supposed to turn out the way it did with Tracy Porter picking off his pass intended for Reggie Wayne and taking it to the house, sealing the Saints first Super Bowl win. But it did and now we'll see if Peyton and his Indianapolis Colts can rebound from that improbable end to last year. Odds are they will with most of the same pieces from their offensive juggernaut back in place for another year. WRs Reggie Wayne, Pierre where's my cedilla Garcon and Austin Collie will be joined by Anthony Gonzalez after sitting out last year along with perhaps the best tight end in the league, Dwight Clark. If Joseph Addai breaks down at running back, Donald Brown is ready to step in while their offensive line looks set to open holes and keep Peyton upright. Wait. Check that. The offensive line is in a mess and it was the Colts failure to establish any kind of running attack that ultimately lost them the last game of the year. Not the interception or even the onside kick. That as much as their own vaunted offensive attack is what gives the Texas Texans (the worst team name in the NFL) a fighting chance to stop the Colts, who have won every AFC South crown but one.
I was burned by the Texans last year, picking them to unseat the Colts, but I won't repeat the call this year. Although they've got the weapons with QB Matt Schaub and all-world WR Andre Johnson, their lack of depth may hurt them. RB Arian Foster may be this year's fantasy football Ray Rice, Jacoby Jones may step up and become a legitimate number two receiver and TE Owen Daniels may bounce back from last year's season ending torn ACL, but they may not. Along with the fact that too many question marks on defense, particularly at corner, plays to the Colts advantage. Oh yeah, the division also features CJ2K. Tennessee's Chris Johnson will once again challenge the 2000 yard rushing mark but I need to see a mentally stable QB Vince Young for a full season and a return to glory for the D before the Titans contend again. Rounding out the division are the miserable Jacksonville Jaguars. Sure they've got Maurice Jones-Drew, but there are even question marks flying around about MJD as a mysterious knee ailment has slowed him down during preseason. Quick, name a non-hyphenated Jaguar player. Tarps can cover up the empty seats at newly-named EverBank Field but they won't mask the lack of talent on the field. I hear they need a team in Los Angeles...
Predicted Finish: Colts 13-3; Texans 10-6; Titans 8-8; Jaguars 3-13
AFC North - Tales of Big Ben's Little Ben
No other name this off-season better exemplified the NFL's off-field problems than Ben Roethlisberger. From a football perspective, his actions may cost his Pittsburgh Steelers a few games and the division title but the larger picture is that of a league with a diseased culture. Following the high profile cases of Michael Vick and Plaxico Burress, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell's hand was forced into meting out some sort of punishment to the two-time Super Bowl champion Steeler quarterback after the tabloid treatment given to allegations of his alcohol assisted unwanted plucking of a Georgia peach. If the league hadn't done something, the Steelers would have had to after having traded WR Santonio Holmes for a measly fifth round draft choice after being suspended for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Any perception of a double standard for a white QB couldn't be risked and therefore a six game suspension was originally handed down by Goodell (while reduced to four games last week it still amounts to five games as the Steelers have a week 5 bye). Oh, while charges were never pursued, payments were probably made. Just like they were after the Lake Tahoe incident. This is the kind of guy who doesn't learn, remember when he had a near fatal motorbike accident a couple of years back riding without a valid license or helmet? Yeah, well he said he would do it again - um, yeah, without a helmet.
The loss of their starting QB and star wideout means the Steelers won't reclaim the division title, but I don't think the Bengals will repeat. Sure they've added another loud-mouthed WR in the form of Terrell Owens to play opposite Ochocinco but unfortunately NFL games aren't decided by Twitter followers or reality show appearances. As long as Carson Palmer's arm allows him to throw the out, Cincinnati may reduce Cedric Benson's rushing workload giving them a more balanced attack to go along with a strong D but it won't be enough to hold off the Ravens. Baltimore is looking to make a move after a couple of WR acquisitions of their own in the form of Anquan Boldin and ugh, TJ Houshmandzadeh. Ray Rice should put up over 2000 combined rushing and receiving yards as well to help put QB Joe Flacco and the offense over the top while the ageless Ray Lewis once again leads a powerful Raven defense. Oh, and the Browns. Yeah, while Mike Holmgren may have been a winner once in Green Bay, the taint of the Shithawks is on him from his stint in Seattle which doesn't bode well for his tenure as team president in Cleveland. Quick, name a Brown player.
Predicted Finish: Ravens 12-4; Steelers 9-7; Bengals 9-7; Browns 5-11
AFC East - Welcome to Fantasy Island
I couldn't have put it better myself, Tattoo. Today and most every other day unfortunately it's not only Tattoo who has decided to be selfish. Our me first world ensures the only way to make problems go away is to roll in a wheelbarrow full of cash - guaranteed. Thanks to $32 million of the guaranteed kind of cash out of a total of $46 for four years, New York Jets opponents will be getting episodes of Revis Island once again this year. That an another a plane trip a la Favre, this time featuring reality TV star/Jets head coach Rex Ryan flying down to Florida to help convince his favourite player to end his 36-day hold out seems a little bit weird to me. Yeah, I understand that players careers are short and they have to get what they can, when they can, but Darrelle was in the wrong. The Jets had already paid him top 10 money after taking him number 14 in the draft in 2007, signing him to a contract that still had three years and $21 million remaining on it. Well, Woody Johnson blinked, Hard Knocks got a happy finale (was it really any good? worth finding online?), and the Jets a fighting chance to overcome a challenging opening to the season, facing the Ravens, Vikings and division rival Patriots, Dolphins and Bills in the first five weeks. Well, of course there is the rest of the team, you know, a second year QB and RB in Mark Sanchez Shonn Greene that need to prove they're for real.
Isn't it funny how suspect the Patriots defense is now that Bill Belichik isn't allowed to cheat? Not even Tom Brady to Randy Moss and Wes Welker can overcome the porous D in New England. Hopes are high in Miami but there a too many question marks for me to pick them to overtake the Jets or Pats. (When) Will former Bronco WR Brandon Marshall return to form, do something stupid and ruin his new team's chemistry? Can QB Chad Henne take a big step forward in his second year as the starter? How will the defense play without longtime standouts Jason Taylor and Joey Porter? No matter, at least they don't have to worry much about becoming cellar dwellers as those perpetually bad Buffalo Bills will be back to fill that bill. Head coach Chan Gailey may have come to town with a playbook filled with razzle-dazzle but when your QBs name is Trent Edwards and it looks like your only offensive threat is a rookie RB, namely CJ Spiller, there's sure to be a lot of long, cold Sunday afternoons again in Orchard Park.
Predicted Finish: Jets 11-5, Patriots 10-6, Dolphins 8-8, Bills 3-13
AFC West - Billionaires versus Millionaires
Where better than here in the AFC West to remind readers and football fans of the best reason to enjoy this NFL year as much as possible. Ready? There might not be any football to watch next year. The reason is best personified in a man known to some as V Jax, San Diego Charger wide receiver Vincent Jackson. This is a man so sure of his worth that after getting a league imposed three game suspension for substance abuse (yes, I know, sounds familiar) he decided he should holdout to force his team and owner to renegotiate his contract and pay him more money. Ok, ok, maybe it wasn't specifically Jackson's chutzpah that caused the owners to vote unanimously at the end of the 2008 season to suspend the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) March 2011, but for me he has become the poster boy for why I might actually be in the billionaire owners' corner for their upcoming battle against the millionaires in the players union. Too many variables to go into now, I'm sure an upcoming post will cover it; for now, this is a good run down on the situation
With or without their star receiver the Chargers will remain the class of the division. If this year's early favourite for rookie offensive player of the year Ryan Mathews manages to fill the rather large shoes left by his predecessor at running back, LaDainian Tomlinson, QB Philip Rivers, TE Antonio Gates and Jackson light, WR Malcom Floyd, should provide enough of a spark to power the Chargers offense to the division title. I've got a feeling that the Kansas Chiefs just might be able to turn things around this year to sneak into second. Charlie Weiss' team has a QB unburdened by the unreasonable expectations put upon him last year in Matt Cassel to divvy the ball between the best running back in the league at the end of last year, Jamaal Charles, breakout candidate WR Dwayne Bowe and my favourite new name in the league and multi-purpose threat, rookie WR/RB Dexter McCluster. Meanwhile the Broncos have lost their best pass rusher Elvis Dumervil, a RB Knowshon Moreno with a hamstring ready to end his season on any play and a Royal and a Jabar for their mediocre QB Kyle Orton to throw to thanks to losing Marshall to the Dolphins and their #1 draft pick Demaryius Thomas to injury. Oh, and thanks to bumbleheaded coach Josh McDaniels the team has managed to trade and waste away a treasure trove of draft picks received in the Jay Cutler deal (well, they did manage to pick up a god loving bench warmer) which may help Oakland climb out of the basement next year, next year Raider fans, next year.
Predicted Finish: Chargers 11-5, Chiefs 10-6, Broncos 8-8, Raiders 6-10
Uh-huh. So where does that lead us?
So, the NFC gives us the Saints, Packers, Cowboys and 49ers as divisional champs along with my two wildcard picks, the Falcons and the Vikings. In the AFC, the Colts, Ravens, Jets and Chargers take the divisional crowns while the wildcards will be the Pats and Texans. The long road to Super Bowl XLV in Arlington, Texas will only be completed by two teams, the Dallas Cowboys and the Baltimore Ravens with my Cowboys lifting the Lombardi Trophy.
A few more quick hits here before the season kicks off in an hour or so...the Detroit Lions sweep the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of they Year, Jahvid Best and Ndamukong Suh; 49er Patrick Willis wins Defensive Player of the Year while Raven Ray Rice takes the Offensive award; and the league MVP is Aaron Rodgers as he passes for 5,000 yards.
So who cares if the past year hasn't taught us anything. The BP spew, Russian heatwave, ice sheets breaking off of Greenland or floods in Pakistan have nothing to do with the way we live, apparently it's all happened before. Ditto the ever increasing gap between rich and poor, been there done that. It's easy to predict that we'll keep driving our cars in circles and handing ever greater amounts of wealth and control to the rich and powerful but it's impossible to guess what the new NFL season will bring. So I've got just one more question for you. Are you ready for some football?!?!