Furthering the Interests of Facinorous Aristocrats

Nothing sells like a feel good story. Throw in sports and you've got a sure winner, I mean how else could Sandra Bullock win an Oscar? From the moment FIFA (Furthering the Interests of Facinorous Aristocrats) president Sepp Blatter revealed to the world that South Africa would host the ongoing World Cup 2010 there was always going to be another feel good story sold to the world. This time featuring a nation that had risen from the ashes of apartheid twenty years earlier and was ready to trumpet to the world the glorious transformation its society had achieved thanks to equality and democracy. Yet if one is able to shade their eyes from the blinding glare reflecting from the shiny new stadiums and shut out the mind numbing blare of the vuvuzelas and look beneath the surface, it's not difficult to dig up more than a bit of dirt.

Staging the World Cup in South Africa is a big deal. It is seen by many as Africa's tournament as 2010 marks the first time the biggest sporting event in the world has been played on the continent. Nations from around the world are represented, 32 of them from Algeria to Uruguay and all points in between. The road to qualification was littered with upsets and controversy seeing teams like 105th ranked North Korea make it, the hand of Henry knocking out the Irish and even coming close to igniting a regional war. There's already been enough stories coming out of the tournament to keep our brains buzzing, from BP drawing but not plugging the Stars and Stripes , the DPRK almost pulling out what would've been an actually exciting tie with Brazil, pre-tourny favorite Spain losing to Switzerland and an official ball that is somehow too... round. Yet the dominant theme will continue to be the feel good story of how South Africa has gone from apartheid blacklisting to center stage instead of how it became the conduit through which the world's premiere sporting event is funneling profits back to Geneva.

From its birth in 1930, the World Cup had see-sawed back and forth between Europe and the Americas. Back in 1994 the idea of Africa hosting such an event was seen as a pipe-dream. With South Korea and Japan's co-hosting in 2002, the possibilities suddenly expanded. Of course it all came down to money, "Does Africa have the resources to stage an event of such enormity", queried the chairman of the 2010 FIFA World Cup Local Organising Committee South Africa (OC), Irvin Khoza in 1994. After narrowly losing out in the voting for the 2006 event, the continent was handed the next tournament as FIFA announced that it would rotate the tournament between football confederations. As a result, the next cup would be held in Africa. Handed? What up? Well, you see there was a new president of FIFA elected between the two votes, with Sepp Blatter taking his predecessors corrupt ways to new extremes. He was able to secure the presidency to send the tournament to Africa in exchange for a couple of dozen envelopes stuffed with $50,000 picked up in a hotel room in Paris. Since then, Blatter has managed to surround himself with an organization rivaling the evil of the likes of BP or Sedes Sacrorum,

So what? Well, while we are sold the feel good vibe of the Rainbow Nation that emerged from the chains of apartheid, the fact is most of the country has simply traded one kind of bondage for another. Instead of a Black-White divide, it's now the somehow politically correct ever-expanding Poor-Rich split. The Gini coefficient (graph fans here, number here), which is the most common measurement of income inequality, with 0 representing a true socialistic paradise of perfectly equal income and 1 being the opposite extreme, has increased from 0.6 to almost 0.7 since the end of apartheid, making South Africa the most unequal country in the world. What? Yep, there is more inequality thanks to the democratic capitalism illusion, a model of wealth extraction perfected from South American to the East Indies. I used to think the US was bad at around 0.45 or Singapore, but, 0.7, really? Oh, yeah, the whole township thing hasn't improved and will in fact get worse thanks to the World Cup. If you think that the $6 billion spent on stadiums and infrastructure has been anything but a multiplier effect of this distribution you are deluded.

Sure, there's been some stadia, roads, an airport and a new shiny train built, but the stadiums were white elephants before being built, the airport expansion unnecessary and the rail link an overpriced toy. The stadiums may be the most egregious offense, so I'll save a paragraph for them, amazing considering the sums sucked out of future South African taxpayers for other useless novelties. The new $1.1 billion King Shaka airport in Durban more than doubled its original cost estimate to replace an airport that had excess capacity through 2017. The Gautrain rapid rail costs riders five times the originally announced price as cost overruns saw the cost of the Johannesburg-Pretoria commuter line make even those doublings from estimate to true costs we're so used to look reasonable. Originally priced at 3.5 to 4 billion rand in 2000, it may have cost as much as 35 billion, but may have 'only' cost 25 billion, around $3.7 billion. All the construction provided some temporary employment for the workers but fistfuls of kickbacks for the developers.

Five new stadiums were built, a couple of which may never be used again, while five were refurbished. If you're all football smart and stuff you should now be asking why ten stadiums were necessary when there are only eight groups. Wait, 1,2,3. Now, your saying "ooooooooooh, the kickbacks." Cape Town already had a perfectly good stadium, but it only took a little FIFA arm twisting to convince organizers a brand new stadium would look better on TV. The result, the architecturally stunning Green Point. Costs: $580 million, skyrocketing rents that have pushed out locals, and forced relocations for those residents who might upset the tourist to the concentration camp known as Blikkiesdorp AKA "Tin Can Town". Um, District 9 and all that. Sorry for saying it out loud, but if you haven't seen the tin can settlements the government considers an improvement over the townships, well, you simply need to look at pictures and watch the movie. Cape Town's other venue, Athlone, got a $53 million facelift so that they could evict people to build a car park.

Not bad enough for you? Ok, how about murder? As many as seven people with knowledge or connection to the corrupt tender process for constructing parts of the new stadium near Nelspruit near the Mozambique border have been killed. Yet, once again, the stadium is visually striking with gantries and buttresses that hold up the roof and the stands made to look like giant giraffes, thus its "giraffe stadium" moniker. Maybe due to this, once again, the locals who are paying the price for the enrichment of a select few were tricked into supporting a process that is robbing their future. A primary school and a high school we're bulldozed in 2007 with the students transferred to airless prefabricated classrooms. Promised water mains, electricity, proper housing and a tar road to match the building of the stadium, the locals have received nothing. Literally, as after the four World Cup matches are played, the stadium will sit idle, with no local team to even use the stadium. Durban's new $450 million stadium is named after anti-apartheid activist and hero Moses Mabhida, but perhaps PW Botha may have been more appropriate. This is because an 800 metre perimeter must be enforced around the stadium, along with all other official venues, within which only large sponsors are allowed to sell their wares. That means the very people who are normally so prominent in South Africa's busy streetscapes have little chance of benefitting greatly from the World Cup. It's so frustrating to see barriers such as these thrown up which perpetuate the inequalities between the haves and have-nots.

With such tension bubbling just under the surface it therefore comes as no surprise South Africa, which boasts the second highest murder rate in the world, has come under intense scrutiny for their security arrangements. The Togo travesty next door in Angola during the most recent African Cup of nations didn't help while the media did their part in turning up the stupid factor, propagating fear stories of machete attacks and earthquakes. Oh oh, better herd the street kids into prisons so the cameras don't catch a glimpse of poverty. Why solve the structural problems when you can just buy guns, you know, oppression of the weak by the strong seems to be the only way to maintain the peace. Well, the people coulda been given some work I guess. Perhaps manufacturing the souvenirs, playing the music and providing some local cuisine. But they weren't. The official mascot was produced in China, the official song provided by Colombia's Shakira and the official restaurant is McDonald's.

Well, at least the locals have a fair chance to experience the greatest sporting event in the world live while being played in their backyards. Well, not really seeing as most of the continent is trapped on the wrong side of the digital divide and only those with internet connections were able to buy tickets. Africa's tournament? Only 11,000 Africans bought about 36,000 of the 3 million tickets sold outside of South Africa. If people protest this kinda of unfairness there's enough cops to put them down quickly though as 41,000 police officers are being deployed for World Cup security and opening 56 special courts to quickly try the accused. Um, but eventually the people notice that they're not being given a fair shake, right? So, what happens when those paid to protect those that are making the decisions decide they aren't happy seeing their rights trampled on? In Durban after the German thrashing of Australia, security guards were protesting in just such a way when police were called in to quell the unrest. The following day, Monday, the decision was made to hand over security duties to the police in both Cape Town and Durban.

Well, at least the RSA will get a bit of revenue to pay all these bills, whew. What's that you say? It's FIFA that gets all the TV contract revenue along with the cash from the sponsorship deals. Oh, and they have a tax exemption worked out with the government on all the crap sold in the tourist zones to boot. South African foreign debt has now ballooned to over $80 billion so the Mail and Guardian newspaper took the government to court to force them to reveal the secret deal worked out with Pretoria that exempts FIFA from exchange control regulations. So, now we know that not only will all the $2.5 billion profit zip back to Zurich but all the official sponsors and partners get to keep all their booty as well. Did we mention many of these companies are being sued in the US through the Alien Tort Claims Act as they did business with the apartheid regime? Oh, well, they did, hello Coca-Cola. Shame on you for thinking the Israelis were the only people unethical enough to do business with the apartheid regime. After all, what are a few nuclear warheads among racists? If you are one of the FIFA chosen ones, all's good but the marketing gestapo will even throw hot chicks wearing short skirts in jail for sitting in the stands together if they're wearing the wrong beer's colors. Imagine what they'd do with a non-McDonald's ice-cream vendor.

Let's review. FIFA makes a $2.5 billion profit for the year, paying an unknown amount to the president who arranged to have South Africa host the World Cup. South Africans are left with a legacy of debt for stadiums they don't need while the locals are virtually shut out of any chance to partake in the games either economically or through attendance. If we took off the blinders and called FIFA what they really are, the mafia, we would be able to see how they are able to seal one-sided agreements that are nothing but a licence to print money. While South Africa shoulders the cost of new stadia and infrastructure, they don't get to share in on television, marketing or ticketing. Oh, and FIFA earnings are protected by a tax bubble, meaning they'll pay little tax so will be able to bring back all their profits straight to Switzerland. If only the renovators tasked with Blatter's demand for an "African-themed bathroom" in his suite in Johannesburg's most luxurious hotel had fulfilled his wish to the letter. By removing the running water and installing the pail of choice the Emperor's kind has forced on most Africans ol' Sepp may have learned something about empathy, something the world and particularly Brazil would appreciate, seeing as he's setting himself up to remain president for life.

What about the politicians? How did this happen? What about Nelson Mandela? Yes, the figure of Mandela was instrumental in both bringing down the apartheid regime and bringing the World Cup to South Africa, but unfortunately the next couple president's haven't really kept the momentum. Since the end of apartheid in 1990, life expectancy in South Africa has fallen by 13 years to 51. This is only partially attributable to the leadership's AIDS denialism as evidenced by the fact they have even fallen behind Rwanda.Yeah, Thabo Mbeki, president from 1999 to 2008 and so in charge while the tournament contracts were being signed, also signed the death sentence order for over 300,000 people by refusing to accept medical evidence that AIDS is caused by a virus. Finally replaced by the ANC, the party showed its ineptness by picking Jacob Zuma a man who would most likely be in jail today for rape if he hadn't been the ANC's deputy-president. Whatever, rape a girl, rape a nation. At least he knew to shower after to avoid getting HIV, maybe he learned the trick from one of his wives, five total, three current!?! Real poster boys for the glories of democracy. It was Mandela that Sepp Bladder knew he could sell the world even if he couldn't get Mandela to the opening ceremony as God Car took his great-granddaughter away the night before the big event.

The World Cup will be remembered by some for the incessant sound of the fans blowing their vuvuzelas, their monotonous clamour not only drowning out the sound of cheers and chants but also serving as a white noise that prevents the people from thinking about the facts. Of course it's facts they are mostly missing as press accreditation with FIFA hangs on a pledge not to throw the World Cup "into disrepute" while reporting about the event at the risk of being banned. All of this has been seen before in many places under different guises though if people could just learn to pay attention. Greece hosting the 2000 Olympics saw the claws of capitalism help the Hellenic Republic jump off the deep end of debt. A foreign power as often as not simply carries an acronym these days, from the IOC to FIFA to the IMF, extracting rents at the expense of the weaker. Huh, not much difference than the domination of South America by Spain et al from the 15th century on either. Just as the encomenderos applied the whips to the black slaves around the likes of the Cerro Rico Potosi to extract silver centuries ago, the FIFA's of the world are still doing the same using more marketing friendly methods in the name of capitalism. Sorry, just started reading Eduardo Galeano's Open Veins of Latin America, better stop now and save that story of rape and pillage for another day. Predictions? Winners? Let's stay with the orange theme and take the perpetually under-performing Dutch squad to win. Losers? Well, that's easy, the team that didn't even get a chance to play again, the poor who will foot the bill.

Togo Travesty

The announcement coming when it did, the same weekend the African Cup of Nations champion was crowned, the Confederation of African Football (Caf) was probably hoping it would slide by unnoticed. Instead, they've managed to ensure the tragedy that befell the Togolese national football squad stayed at the top of the news headlines while Egypt fought its way to a 1-0 victory over Ghana to claim the title for the second consecutive time. In case you missed it, Togo has been banned from the next two African Cups, not for cheating or doping as you might expect, but for pulling out of the tournament after three people were killed in a half hour machine gun siege on their bus by rebels moments after as they entered Angola.

Wait, let's rewind. This year's tournament was held in Angola, a nation that has enjoyed less than eight years of peace since the end of a 27 year civil war. Among the 16 teams competing, the tiny west African nation of Togo (12 on the map) in fact boasts a relatively powerful squad. Touting a couple of English Premiership players, Manchester City striker Emmanuel Adebayor and Aston Villa midfielder Moustapha Salifou they were unfortunate both geographically and politically in having drawn to play their group stage games in Cabinda, one of four venues for the tournament. You see, Cabinda is an exclave. Not only is it separated from the rest of Angola by a strip of the DR Congo and does it share it's northern border with the other Congo, but it's also home to the last pocket of unrest leftover from the civil war. Despite the signing of a peace deal in 2006, the nationalist movement Flec (Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda) has continued a low-level insurgency as it tries to claim independence from the Angolan government.

Ahh, seems I need to back up some more. Angola was plunged into 27 years of civil war from the moment it won it's freedom from Portugal in the Angolan War of Independence, itself a 14 year struggle which was only brought to an end with the Carnation Revolution in Lisbon. While all civil wars are complex, a reading of Rysard Kapuscinski's Another Day of Life would be an essential starting point in deciphering the complex web of armed faction acronyms, from the MPLA to UNITA, and supporting nations from Cuba to Zaire. It was a conflict which saw Chevron prop up a socialist regime and Cuban soldiers protecting American oil installations against CIA sponsored South African mercenaries. Fortunately for our purposes, focusing on Cabinda, only two factors need to be remembered, Flec and oil. Angola is sub-Saharan Africa's 2nd leading oil producer, with the Cabinda region producing about 60% of its total output. In fact, while diamonds furnished most of the revenue for the rebel UNITA during the civil war, it was Cabinda oil that kept the government MPLA going. Diamonds versus oil, and in the end, oil emerged victorious.

Yet Cabinda has always been more than physically separate from the rest of Angola. Even though it too had been a Portuguese protectorate since the Treaty of Simulanbuco, of 1 February 1885 (Portuguese only), the area has a distinctive culture, ethnicity and history and thus Angola and Cabinda were kept as officially separate overseas provinces. Locals were never Portuguese citizens, being labeled indigenas and forced to pay a head tax or work for the state six months of each year (p.103 gives a more thorough account). The rebel group, Flec, was not immune to the fracturing into splinter groups so common during civil war, with the result that when a peace deal was finally signed in 2006, most of the soldiers didn't feel it applied to them. While the Angolan government marketed a lasting peace, future trouble was inevitable in a corrupt environment that breeds fierce competition for the spoils of natural resources (pp.30-36 for more).

So, that brings us to the fateful day for the Togolese national team. The question is how could the team be sanctioned with suspension from the next two editions of the tournament in 2012 and 2014 and slapped with a $50,000 fine when it clearly was the fault of the organizers for having scheduled the matches in such a volatile region where warnings of possible attacks had been issued? Caf's executive committee's case seems to be based on three points. First, the Togolese team shouldn't have driven but flown; second, the team withdrew shortly before the tournament; thirdly, and most importantly it seems, there was 'political interference' in the decision to pull the team out of the tournament. The first claim rests on the organizers assertion that teams were told to fly in the regulations posted on the web site; the second on Article 78 of Caf's regulations which specifies such a punishment for teams withdrawing shortly before the competition; the third on strict policy intended to separate politics from sport. Absurd, all three.

Prior to the tournament, the team had been practicing in the Congo, in Pointe Noire. A quick look at the accompanying map (zoom in top left) will show that without strict warnings about the lack of safety, which you wouldn't expect when a major tournament is being played in the area, flying over the southern tip of the Congo, Cabinda, a bit of DR Congo (labeled Zaire on the old map) and then much of Angola to Luanda to turn around and fly back to Cabinda would seem ludicrous. As for the regulations stipulating the necessity to fly, the nearest I could find is 16.15. Satisfactory transportation means should be put at the disposal of the visiting team, the referees and the commissioner, either by road or by air if the distance is superior to 200 Km. The travel should be made on the day before the match at the latest and at a reasonable hour of the day, except if visiting team arrive late. Pointe Noire to Cabinda is much less than 200 km, besides, I don't think there was a plane waiting for the team anywhere, thus the bus ride. Additionally, it's clear that someone on the Angolan side knew they were planning on going by bus as the team was accompanied by an Angolan security force. Thanks to Google maps you can try to follow their route.

Next, while article 78 does specify punishment for "forfeit notified less than twenty days before the start or during the final competition", a quick look down the page to Articles 80 and 89 reveal that "Reserves are made as to cases of force majeure and shall be decided by the Organising Committee" - three dead and a backup goalkeeper with a bullet lodged in his spine as a result of a terrorist attack sounds like it would fit the bill. Additionally, just days before the decision to impose the penalties, Caf president Issa Hayatou was quoted as saying, "We wished they would have stayed but respect their decision to leave." Shortly after the attacks he was quoted further saying, "It is left to you to decide to stay in a competition synonymous of fraternity, brotherhood, friendship and solidarity. And in case you decide to leave the competition, we will definitely understand your decision and it will be accepted."

Point three is admittedly the stickiest. Amid the aftermath, the team wavered back and forth between going home and playing, finally holding a team vote and surprising everyone with the decision to stay. At this point however, Togo's Prime Minister Gilbert Houngbo overruled the team's decision and ordered them home, denouncing the security in Angola and sending the presidential plane to collect the squad. Technically, politics have entered the sporting realm at this point. Yet, wasn't the choice of Angola as host nation politically motivated, seen as an opportunity to develop its facilities, tourism and infrastructure - over $1 billion was spent, $600 million alone for the four new Chinese built stadiums. The decision to have Cabinda serve as a venue was even more transparently politically charged in a brazen effort to prove to the outside world that peace and stability had been achieved in the region and therefore ready for foreign investment.

The organizers miscalculation also affects politics beyond Angola's borders. The leader of the Flec movement that claimed responsibility for the attacks, Rodrigues Mingas, lives in exile in France. Tensions have arisen as the Angolan government has criticized France for not taking appropriate measures to have him extradited. Don't forget, the tournament is officially known as the Orange Africa Cup of Nations, Orange of course being a French telecommunications company. Back in Cabinda, the government is using the attack to justify a crackdown on political opponents, rounding up priests, professors and lawyers. Needless to say, the authorities don't have a very good track record of treating their detainees well. Meanwhile in Togo, presidential elections are due to be held later this month and I've got a feeling this tragedy will be an issue. It seems that politics have a way of getting involved in situations like this no matter how hard you try to avoid it.

Any other year and the whole tournament would most likely have been canceled, however, it comes in the same year that Africa will host it's first World Cup, when South Africa takes center stage for the world's most popular sport (No matter what you hear over the next few days, far more people will watch the World Cup than the Super Bowl). Somewhat ironically, 2010 also marks the African Union's Year of Peace and Security. This tournament was to serve as further proof that the continent was ready for the challenge, but it has only given ammunition to those who have questioned the decision to hold the world's biggest sporting event in 'the dark continent'; never mind that Cabinda is further from Johannesburg that London is from Moscow.

This latest in a string of bizarre decisions from football's governing authorities came down from leadership represented by Issa Hayatou, a man who symbolizes many of the reasons Africa has seen so little progress. Hayatou has been dictator president of Caf for over twenty years and it is no coincidence that the leader of his home nation of Cameroon, Paul Biya, has also been president since 1982 - José Eduardo dos Santos has been Angola's president since 1979! These type of men have been great innovators in the world of phony elections, ensuring that the cycle of corruption (you'll find Angola at 162 of 180 countries on the corruption index) and poverty will continue while they live like kings. Sport, much like oil, is a natural magnet for corruption as displayed in Angola where at least a third of oil revenue is siphoned off into the pockets of the politically connected while the people are left to suffer. At its best, football serves to bring the people of the world together, at it's worst, it serves to further the political aims of the entrenched elite.

The Worst Job in the World

In case you missed it, tomorrow marks one week since Morgan Tsvangirai was sworn in as Prime Minister of Zimbabwe. Also, in keeping with my recent theme of birthdays and evil, February 21st will be President Robert Mugabe's birthday. Causes for celebration, no? Maybe, but once again the news out of Zimbabwe seems to be going from bad to worse. Mugabe has perfected his imitation of Muhammed Ali's rope-a-dope fighting technique, always seeming to come off the ropes at a difficult angle, his opponents never able to get a clean shot. Sadly, the constant stream of bad news has not only created apathy outside of Zimbabwe, where most have grown immune to the absurdity of the situation, it has also lead to the only opposition voice accepting a deal that seems doomed to failure.

The illusion of compromise is what Mugabe and his South African collaborators have crafted over the past few months. After what seemed like endless wrangling, a power sharing deal was finally worked out where Tsvangirai would become PM and his MDC party along with the Arthur Mutambara's breakaway faction would be granted 16 ministerial posts (13 & 3) while Mugabe would remain President and his Zanu-PF party would get 15 ministries. All good in theory, all bad in practice. The issue of who would get which ministry took ages to sort out; first Mugabe grabbed the three most critical posts, defence, home affairs - which is in charge of the police - and finance, but in the end conceded the finance ministry to the MDC and a sharing arrangement for home affairs. Here's where the real comedy starts. The swearing in ceremony for the ministers took place last Friday, coincidentally the same day Tsvangirai's pick for deputy minister of agriculture was arrested, charged with conspiracy to commit banditry, sabotage and terrorism. Roy Bennett, a former white farmer (well, he's still white, but his land was stolen by Mugabe) and current MDC treasurer has been jailed indefinitely. Next, Mugabe brings a list of 22 names to be sworn in as ministers at the ceremony (remember, only 15 Robert), causing delay and confusion which eventually resulted in around 35 ministers being sworn in when the original number was to be 31 (best list I can find is here). I'm afraid the battle that took place over the scraps of power, fist fights were reported, will be indicative of what's to come as the survival instinct kicks in for Mugabe's cronies.

If not for the Bennett arrest, the biggest ministerial story would be the finance portfolio. In a country where inflation is off the charts (does 6.5 quindecillion novemdecillion percent - 65 followed by 107 zeros make any sense to you?), they've recently minted a 100 trillion dollar note, gold is exchanged for necessities and a move to the South African Rand and dollarization is occurring, the most important post allocated to the opposition MDC should be that of finance minister. Tsvangirai chose long time supporter Tendai Biti, a man who until just a few weeks ago was languishing in a Harare prison on treason charges. In what are said to be his first comments on receiving word of his posting, Biti was quoted as saying, "The job is the worst in the world but I will have to look the job in the eye and I have no doubt that I will be equal to the task and will prevail". The economy is broken and he will have little real power to do anything as central bank chief Gideon Gono, an ally of Mr. Mugabe’s, pulls the levers. Gono has done everything possible to drive the economy into the ground. The man living in a 47-bedroom house has overseen the collapse from exporting powerhouse to the present state and to this day doesn't blame Mugabe or himself, but, like his boss, blames the west. The root cause can clearly be found in the land seizures of the white minority commercial farms, destroying property rights, collapsing food production, foreign investment, lending and land values, with a bit of international (never effectively targeted) sanctions to wrap it up. The vicious circle, once started, has only been reinforced by every stupid move that Gono makes.

Unbelievably, it appears things are about to actually take a turn for the worse instead of improving. There are growing whispers that there could be a coup in the making, orchestrated by the Joint Operations Command (JOC), a five-man body comprising the chiefs of the army, air force, police, prisons and intelligence - the most powerful men in the country. All five boycotted last Wednesday's and Friday's swearing-in ceremonies for Tsvangirai and the country's new ministers. Tsvangirai himself seemed to hint at this reality the other day saying "We have to budget for some residual resistance from those who see this deal as a threat to their interest". In a Guardian interview he went on to say, "Unfortunately people are preoccupied with Mugabe as a person. They need to get over it. This has gone beyond Mugabe. People need to stop talking about him as the only issue. Mugabe is part of the problem but he is also part of the solution. He is not the obstacle we are now facing". Even more worrying are the acts of provocation against the MDC: the arrest of Roy Bennett, and the refusal to release political prisoners whom Tsvangirai has demanded be released. The same men have openly declared they would never salute Tsvangirai. It's no wonder as these five have the most to lose if the new government manages to function and reduce corruption: everything from choice land to having first dibs on the food and fuel that does manage to make it into the country, which are then sold at favourable prices to parallel market operators who profit from shortages. Already the MDC controlled parliament has approved a law that creates a new National Security Council to be accountable both to the MDC and the Zanu-PF.

Keep in mind that Robert Mugabe turns 85 years-old later this month and has been in power for 29 years, even he knows that all things must eventually come to an end. Could his blowout birthday bash this Saturday be a last hoorah? In a country where 94 per cent are jobless and cholera rampages through a population debilitated by hunger, a wish list has been sent out to the party faithful soliciting the following: 2,000 bottles of champagne (Moët & Chandon or ’61 Bollinger preferred); 8,000 lobsters; 100kg of prawns; 4,000 portions of caviar; 8,000 boxes of Ferrero Rocher chocolates; 3,000 ducks; and much else besides...Those who prefer to give in cash, not kind, are invited to send “donations” of between $45,000 and $55,000 to a US dollar bank account." Add to this the revelations of the Mugabe's recent property purchases in Asia, including a £4 million residential complex in Hong Kong, where wife Grace has managed to do some shopping and investing when she's not too busy punching photographers. The investing? In case you couldn't guess, a diamond cutting and polishing venture in China.

Of course, the more likely course of events will see Tsvangirai squeezed out as the JOC is probably acting in concert with Mugabe. After all, Mugabe doesn't have a good record of playing nicely with rivals; remember Joshua Nkomo, the man Mugabe sent the North Korean trained Fifth Brigade to kill. Nkomo escaped, but 20,000 Ndebele civilians didn't. Sounds like the election campaign last year, so the status quo continues and Zimbabwe eventually becomes a failed state. Option 2 somehow sees the power sharing arrangement survive, not likely given the fact that most of the people who are in the Zanu-PF cabinet are the same ones that composed the previous one, which even Mugabe called "the worst ever". The first real test will come shortly as Tsvangirai has promised to pay all 150,000 civil servants salaries pegged to foreign currencies; problem is, there won't be any foreign reserves to pay them as Gono has given it all to Grace to go shopping. Maybe they'll at least have time to force Mugabe to extradite Mengistu Haile Mariam, the former Ethiopian dictator who slaughtered opponents on an industrial scale in the “Red Terror”, to Addis Ababa for execution. Or, will it be door #3, a coup d'etat, with the JOC taking control, most likely with the support of those members of the Zanu-PF who have lost their positions due to the power sharing agreement, perhaps even getting Nkomo's old PF-Zapu party back together? Not exactly Let's Make a Deal where the worst door you could choose often left the contestant with a goat, a luxury beyond the reach of most Zimbabweans today.

Still Somewhere in Africa: Zimbabwe

Whew! Thank god that's over, problem solved. Robert Mugabe signed a power-sharing agreement with his rival Morgan Tsvangirai on Tuesday, making the latter Prime Minister. Finally, we can get on with our lives and stop worrying about what's happening in Zimbabwe. Hold on, wait a second, did I say problem solved, stop worrying, Zimbabwe and Robert Mugabe in the same paragraph? I think I did, guess that means nothing's actually decided yet, now I suppose I'll have to tell y'all about it...

I've written three posts since the first round of elections in Zimbabwe, but haven't bothered since the sham of a run-off election for the presidency. In case you missed it Morgan Tsvangirai won the first round, but didn't obtain the necessary 50% (cough, er, yeah right), which necessitated the run-off, which Tsvangirai pulled out of in protest to the violence he and his MDC party were being subjected to by the ruling Xanu-PF. We all know how that story ended, Mugabe in a landslide taking over 85% of the vote, being sworn in as President on June 29th. Well, predictably the west criticized the vote as being illegitimate, and more predictably, Mugabe's spokesman told the west to "go hang a thousand times". While Tsvangirai was hiding out in the Dutch embassy, his party's party's secretary-general and chief negotiator Tendai Biti said in a statement that "the sham election on June 27, 2008, totally and completely exterminated any prospect of a negotiated settlement."

So, what happened between now and then to change their mind? The UN with it's failure to pass resolutions; the Italian's recalling their ambassador; the French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner saying the EU would "accept no government other than a government led by Mr Tsvangirai"; the G8 at a meeting in Japan declaring that "We do not accept the legitimacy of any government that does not reflect the will of the Zimbabwean people"; the US and EU tightening of economic sanctions to include those doing business with the regime; or maybe the Canadian governments banning of arms exports, freezing the assets of top Zimbabwean officials and banning Zimbabwean aircraft from flying over or landing in Canada. I think not, international isolation, so long as it doesn't affect his wife's shopping trips, has proven useless in influencing Mugabe.

While Mugabe, however illegitimately managed to hold onto the presidency, the original election results did bring a change to who controls the lower house of parliament. Tsvangirai's MDC now has 100 seats and ZANU-PF has 99 seats. An MDC offshoot, led by Arthur Mutambara, won 10 seats and an independent candidate won one seat. Prior to the parliamentary session finally being opened at the end of August, an MDC member, Lovemore Moyo, was voted in as the speaker of the house, the 4th most powerful position in the government. When Mugabe addressed the opening session, his speech broadcast live across the country was drowned out by the boos of the opposition. Perhaps this was a wake up call for Mugabe to realize he was incapable of running the day-to-day affairs of the country without Tsvangrai onside.

In tandem with this, Africa, however belatedly, came together to help force compromise. While not all nations seemed to be on the same side, in the end, Mugabe's anti-white rhetoric couldn't be used against his African neighbours. While South African president Thabo Mbeki will get much of the credit for mediating the deal, his pro-Mugabe stance probably caused more damage than he healed. More credit should be given to leaders such as Botswana's president, Seretse Khama Ian Khama who refused to recongize the legitimacy of the run-off election. Kenya's Prime Minister Raila Odinga said "They (the African Union) should suspend him and send peace forces to Zimbabwe to ensure free and fair elections." Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf was also outspoken in her criticism of Mugabe. Even at the announcement of the made in Africa deal Mugabe said, “African problems must be solved by Africans...The problem we have had is a problem that has been created by former colonial power. Why, why, why the hand of the British? Why, why, why the hand of the Americans here? Let us ask that.

I smell another problem, call it fuzziness. Consultations with input from various groups are to start within a month on a new constitution with a referendum to be held within two years. Things get fuzzy from there, I've read reports saying Mugabe will control the army while Tsvangrai gets the police, others that say such institutions are to be impartial to parties. In the end, who cares? How are these people going to sit across from the table from eachother? Talk about skeletons in the closet! Ever since Mugabe began to lose his grip on power in the run up to parliamentary elections in June 2000, his Xanu-PF party has used killing, kidnapping and other violence as its modus operandi, with MDC supporters more often than not the target. The Zimbabwe Peace Project has recorded 16,400 cases of human rights violations this year alone. While denying that Mugabe himself would be the target of justice, Tsvangrai did say that senior members of Mugabe's party could be held accountable for the violence. Cracks were appearing in the Xanu-PF party as early as Tuesday, with hardliners resisting the deal, many will be left out of the cabinet or could lose their governor posts that are to be shared with the MDC. Mugabe and his henchmen have everything to lose in this deal.

The sheer size of the task at hand would be enough to tear apart a normal government, let alone one with three opposing factions. Tsvangirai said the first task of the new government would be to "unlock the food already in the country and distribute it to our people". He failed to mention that it has been kept locked up by Mugabe, who wished to ensure it got distributed only to his supporters, while opposition supporters were deliberately starved. Another big issue will be the sacking of Gideon Gono as Governor of the Reserve Bank. Mugabe has used Gono, a key henchman and his own private banker, to control the economy; and Gono has in turn been rewarded with stolen farms and other looted assets. Foreign donors have made it clear that not a cent will be handed over while Gono remains in office; but if he goes, so does Mugabe’s control of the economy. Yes, quite a work of art he has created with inflation officially running over 11,000,000% but some believe may be as high as 40 million! The third major task will be the the professionalization of security forces that until now have acted as partisan thugs for Mugabe and his henchmen. Particulary bringing the murderous "war vets" and Green Bomber youth league under control, both of which were instrumental to Mugabe’s efforts to terrorize white farmers and opposition blacks. In other words, the agenda favoured both by Tsvangirai and the major Western donors will serve to dismantle Mugabe’s violent and corrupt system, and prepare the way for free elections in which both Mugabe and his party will face annihilation. Doesn't seem very likely that Mugabe will let this happen. Predictably, since the signing, nothing has happened as Mugabe simply bides his time, dragging his feet before anything of substance happens.

So with the world momentarily appeased with the signing of the power sharing "unity government" deal, in which somehow Mugabe is meant to draw policy, while Tsvangirai's parellel council of ministers are meant to implement it, Mr. Mugabe is off to the United Nations. The deal won't accomplish anything until the impasse over the nuts and bolts, specifically who gets which ministries, are resolved. This won't happen quickly as at the same time Mugabe must try to keep his supporters happy, many of whom will lose important posts with implementation. He told his party that the deal was a "humiliation", but necessary because of the party's dismal performance in the only real elections, those of March 29th. At least three-quarters of the 49-member politburo will lose their posts in the proposed government of national unity, so they're in no rush. It's becoming increasingly clear that the 'end-game' hasn't played itself out, what that will be still isn't clear, but Mugabe's signature on a piece of paper hasn't solved anything yet.

Fear of the Other

Archaeologists tell us that the earliest human groups were small family-tribes consisting of about 30 to 50 individuals. It was the perfect number to achieve the balance between having the ability to move quickly and being able to defend themselves effectively in the fight for survival. In a sparsely populated world, these small groups rarely came into contact with each other, but when they did, they had to decide how they would react to this Other. Today's world sees many more potential meetings between groups, yet still we must choose how to react when faced with the Other. What kind of attitude should we have towards them? Should we throw ourselves in fury on those people who are different than us, build a barricade to keep them away, or get to know and understand them?

The headlines today are from South Africa, so we can can once again turn the page and know it doesn't affect us. Whether we're reading this in Europe, North America or even Australia we can feel comfortable in the knowledge that we won't have problems like those in the townships of Johannesburg and Cape Town where at least 42 foreigners have been killed in violence aimed at immigrants. The country that has styled itself as the Rainbow Nation, has seen more than 12 days of violence aimed at immigrant groups. It was thought that this kind of thing could only happen in Nigeria, or maybe the Congo, but the home of the Truth and Reconciliation commission has been witness to marauding groups of vigilantes hunting foreigners, burning their homes and even burning people. A spike in Zimbabwean immigration combined with the fact that the economic gains of the past decade haven't been shared equally among the population has led to violence and the worst is yet to come.

Yeah, well it is only an African phenomenon, right? Well, let's take Italy, a country that has a few skeletons in their closet when it comes to xenophobic hysteria, so you'd think they'd have learnt from past mistakes. In fact though, the country is on the brink of beginning a process of deporting Italian citizens because of their Roma heritage. As is often the case when a right wing populist movement wins an election, Berlusconi's party and their coalition partners won partially on a platform based on blaming the Others. Now, the people have begun to take matters into their own hands. In a scenario supposedly sparked by a 17-year-old Roma girl who supposedly tried to steal someone's baby, the people of Naples have risen up night after night, marching, chanting and burning the homes of the second-class citizen Roma population. What's worse is it seems they've been blocking firefighter's access to the blazes. It's an almost textbook example of directing the populations anger at a scapegoat as the city battles a huge waste collection problem. During the recent election campaign Berlusconi vowed to curb illegal immigrants, describing them as an “army of evil”. The government's response to the recent violence, well quite predictably, more measures to get rid of the "army". Army of evil you say, sounds familiar...

Meanwhile, in America, where they have been busy perfecting the policy of attack over dialogue, they are also embracing the idea of wall building, in this case to keep out the Mexicans. At the same time an election campaign, which could see the election of the first black president, drags on.

Why build a wall when your people need all the exposure to the outside world they can get? It's not to fight terrorists, as construction was begun well before 9/11, in 1994 in fact. It's to keep out the Other. The Great Wall of China, Hadrian's Wall, The Maginot Line, even the rabbit fences of Australia were all overcome by the invaders they were designed to keep out. Over, under, around, through, a wall is just something to be overcome, and they always are. Another doomed barricade will surely be the planned missile shield whose only tactical value seems to be that it pisses the Other off. America has already wasted the past 8 years focusing their response on the first two reactions to the Other, what the world needs more than anything is someone to take up that risky third option, dialogue.

The Other is an easy target when people start getting nervous about their pocketbooks, or worse yet, the hole in their bellies. Throughout our history, mankind has always wavered between the options of war, wall building and dialogue when dealing with this Other. War is hard to justify, the encounter with the Other usually ends tragically with the imposition of one's beliefs on the Other. Wall building only serves to isolate without fixing the problems that lie underneath. In a world where we seem to be moving from a mass society to a new, global society 2.0, interconnectivity is becoming the new world order. Linked more than ever before electronically through communication and physically in terms of transport and movement, how we deal with the Other will only become more important, culturally and economically. A surge in oil prices, a spike in food prices, an economic slow down, fingers will be pointed, swords could be drawn, if we don't talk, who will be next to be blamed?